Man of the people: Kim visiting the flood-hit area in Uiju county of North Phyongan province. — AFP
A high number of defections by North Korean elites in 2023, along with two audacious escapes in the past two weeks, are a sign of a major crisis within the country, say analysts.
There were 10 defections to the South by elites such as diplomats and overseas students, based on figures released this week by South Korea’s unification ministry.
While no specific figures for previous elite defections to the South were given, an unnamed official told local media that the rise in such escapes was likely triggered by the post-pandemic re-opening of North Korean borders in August 2023.
“North Korean diplomats, other officials and students based overseas were told to return last year as the pandemic situation entered a new phase,” an official said.
“Many must have found it unacceptable after experiencing what it was like to live in the free world, knowing that the economic situation worsened, and internal controls strengthened in North Korea.”
Before the pandemic, the South received some 1,000 defectors annually. The numbers dwindled to just over 60 in 2021 and 2022, but rose to 196 in 2023 when border controls started to ease. In the first half of 2024, more than 100 defectors have gone to the South, a number that analysts predict will continue to rise.
As recently as Aug 20, a North Korean soldier successfully crossed into South Korea via the eastern section of the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ). The DMZ demarcates the two Koreas, which are technically still at war.
It was the second defection in 12 days, after a North Korean civilian crossed the western maritime border near Incheon city on foot during low tide on Aug 8.
Such direct North-to-South defections are rare, given that the 248km-long and 4km wide DMZ is among the most heavily armed borders in the world, with an estimated two million mines, barbed wire fences, tank traps and tens of thousands of troops on patrol.
These defections are likely to be an indication of how severe conditions are inside North Korea, says Professor Ban Kil-joo of the Ilmin International Relations Institute at Korea University.
He added that it could even be the start of a second Arduous March, the period between 1994 and 1998 when North Koreans defected to the South in droves to escape widespread famine and economic hardship.
“The Kim regime failed to revive North Korea’s economy, and so its citizens are challenged with food security as well as health security,” he said, referring to the government of leader Kim Jong-un.
North Korea is reportedly experiencing significant internal unrest and severe food shortages from flood damage caused by record-breaking heavy rains in late July.
Some 15,000 North Koreans from Sinuiju city and Uiju county, which border China, are said to have been displaced by the flood damage, with Kim offering to have them relocated to the capital Pyongyang for “shelter and education”.
While Pyongyang had thanked Moscow for its offer of assistance without explicit acceptance of the aid, Kim rebuffed Seoul’s offer, saying that “an enemy remains an enemy”.
Under Kim, the prospect of reunification with the South has dimmed tremendously, giving another reason for the defections, said analysts. — The Straits Times/ANN
