In 10 years or so, there could be more funerals than baby showers to attend as the number of deaths outstrips births among Singaporeans.
If – or when – this happens, Singapore’s population would shrink without immigration.
This will have far-reaching consequences, including for the size of Singapore’s workforce and economic dynamism, say academics who study population issues. It will also have an impact on the caregiving burden and the social fabric, they noted.
On Sept 9, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) Indranee Rajah said in a written reply to a parliamentary question: “Based on current trends, the number of citizen deaths could exceed the number of citizen births in the first half of the 2030s.”
There were 24,726 citizen deaths in 2023. This was a 40% jump from 17,691 deaths in 2014. In contrast, citizen births fell over the same time period.
According to a PMO spokesperson, there were 28,877 such births in 2023, a 13% fall from 33,193 in 2014.
Citizen births refer to those of babies who have at least one Singaporean parent, as such babies automatically get Singapore citizenship at birth, said the spokesperson.
In her reply, Indranee said the projections are meant to illustrate the growth and change in population that could happen if certain demographic assumptions prevail over the projected period.
These assumptions may or may not be realised, she added.
These assumptions refer to those made about future fertility rates, migration and life expectancies, the spokesperson said.
When a country’s fertility has been in decline for a long time, its population becomes older and the number of deaths will naturally exceed the number of births, said Prof Jean Yeung, director of social sciences at the Agency for Science, Technology and Research Institute for Human Development and Potential.
Singapore’s resident total fertility rate, which refers to the average number of babies each woman would have during her reproductive years, has been on the decline for the past 30 years.
It fell below 1, to 0.97, in 2023, for the first time in Singapore’s history.
The republic has put in place an arsenal of measures to boost the birth rate over the past two decades.
This includes providing Baby Bonus cash gifts for newborns and more maternity and paternity leave, and extending government co-funding for in vitro fertilisation treatment for older women.
On the other hand, Singapore’s population is rapidly ageing. In 2010, about one in 10 Singaporeans was aged 65 and older. By 2030, that figure is expected to rise to about one in four.
Dr Tan Poh Lin, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies, said the actual year in which deaths overtake births is “not that significant”.
More critical is the pace at which the difference between the number of deaths and births continues to grow, as the “rapid speed of change in the population and workforce size will make it more difficult for society and the economy to adjust,” she said.
The main implications of a shrinking population are that the resident labour force would start to decline, and all economic activity tied to population numbers would also face a stagnant or declining market, said Assoc Prof Walter Theseira, a labour economist from the Singapore University of Social Sciences.
Prof Yeung said the Singapore Government has been preparing for this demographic challenge.
“That’s why a carefully calibrated number of immigrants have been added to Singapore’s population every year in the past decades,” she said. — The Straits Times/ANN
