Since leaving office, Blair, now 71, has been involved in helping governments deliver reform and change policy though his non-profit consultancy. - ST
SINGAPORE: Governing leaders should prepare to navigate a complex world order with three superpowers in ways that may enhance their own positions and interests.
That was the frank assessment of former British prime minister Tony Blair in an interview with The Straits Times on Sept 23, while he was in Singapore for the annual Asia Summit of American think-tank Milken Institute.
“You have got to decide where your country fits in the world, because it is going to be a world that is going to be multipolar, (where there) will be, in my view, by the middle of this century, three superpowers effectively: America, China and probably India,” said Blair, who is a self-professed centrist.
“Therefore, you are going to have to build strong alliances that enable you to talk to these three superpowers with some level of, you know, equality,” he added.
As it stands, the International Monetary Fund and World Economic Forum are projecting that India may grow to be the world’s third-largest economy by the end of this decade, eclipsed by only the US and China.
The geopolitical rivalry between the US and China is now also manifest in economic and industrial policy.
The US has not only barred Chinese access to advanced semiconductor technology, but also slapped tariffs on Chinese products in several strategic sectors ranging from electric vehicles and batteries, to critical minerals, solar cells and medical products.
Under the current Biden administration, the US has sought to do that by placing a greater emphasis on alliances and minilaterals for security and economic reasons.
Minilaterals are small groups of nations coming together to work on specific issues and shared interests.
India is among America’s friend-shoring partners – despite being friendly towards Russia – as technology firms seek to diversify their supply chain and manufacturing beyond China.
In response, China is also forming and fortifying its own alliances, chiefly with Russia, Iran and North Korea.
By Blair’s own admission, the world today is vastly trickier and more complex compared with when he was British prime minister from 1997 to 2007, when the US was the world’s only superpower.
Still, Blair preaches the importance of consistency in international affairs in his latest book On Leadership.
He references his own experience supporting the US to invade Afghanistan in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks to overthrow the Taliban and destroy al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden.
It was Blair’s support of the 2003 US invasion of Iraq that vastly diminished his popularity and eventually led to his resignation in mid-2007, shortly after winning a third term in office for the Labour Party.
A British public inquiry in 2016 found little evidence Iraq’s then President Saddam Hussein presented an imminent threat at the point of invasion, and faulted the way Blair judged the situation “with a certainty that was not justified”.
“For me, it was about supporting America post-9/11, being a strong ally of America, but also dealing with the problem that we could see arising, which was highly unstable regimes,” Blair told ST.
“So, the issue was ensuring, in the aftermath of that terrorist attack in 9/11, that the world changed. And as I have said, you can agree or disagree with the decisions, but in the end, the important thing – which is why I was so opposed to getting out of Afghanistan – is having done it, (to) stick with it,” he added.
The Obama administration had said US troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, although it was not until 2021 that the US fully exited, leading to the return of Taliban rule.
“The trouble with Western policy today is that it often lacks staying power, and it is important once you take a decision to stick with it,” Mr Blair told ST.
“Having gone out of Afghanistan, what happened? We put the Taliban back in power. The position of women is now absolutely horrible and unacceptable, and you have got it back as a major training ground for terrorism.
“What is strange about the situation is having done the really difficult part, which is removing the Taliban, I believe we could have stayed with a relatively lower amount of commitment.”
Since leaving office, Blair, now 71, has been involved in helping governments deliver reform and change policy though his non-profit consultancy.
The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change now employs about 1,000 people in more than 40 countries and has its Asia-Pacific headquarters in Singapore.
Blair was also, until 2015, a special envoy of the quartet of entities involved in the Middle East peace process: the UN, the US, the European Union and Russia.
He still remains involved in that region, which is witnessing a stark escalation of tensions between Israel and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.
This comes as Israel has been ravaging the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, looking ostensibly to eliminate the Hamas militant group after it launched a shock attack in southern Israel almost a year ago.
“It is a very dangerous situation with every potential of escalation, because of what is now happening to the north of Israel.
“And the core to any solution, in my view, is to construct a day-after plan for Gaza that neither has the Israel Defence Forces nor Hamas running Gaza,” Blair said.
A day-after plan refers to the immediate relief and recovery plan the day after fighting truly stops in the Gaza Strip.
“And we need the right combination to take over the government of Gaza, to provide enough stability that resources can come in to help Gaza; first of all, to get it back on its feet, and then to have a different future,” he added.
“But the only solution ultimately will be a secure state of Israel alongside a Palestinian state.”
Blair said he is in favour of China playing a part in these negotiations.
“I think that its diplomacy... can be meaningful, but it is closely allied with Iran, and it should be exercising a restraining influence there,” Blair said, adding that he has “no doubt” Iran was linked to the preparations for Hamas’ Oct 7 attack on Israel, which were “a long time in the making”.
“There was the opportunity prior to Oct 7 of a whole breakthrough and normalisation (of relations) between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and in the end, that is hugely in the interests of the region, provided that it comes with a genuine pathway to a Palestinian state,” he added. - The Straits Times/ANN
