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BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN (Borneo Bulletin/ANN): Brunei Darussalam’s GDP was projected to grow four per cent this year by the ASEAN +3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) in its latest quarterly regional outlook.
AMRO’s October outlook for Brunei was similar to that of its July’s report, and has projected the Sultanate’s GDP to grow 2.1 per cent next year.
In the report published this week, AMRO forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 4.2 per cent in 2024 and improve to 4.4 per cent in 2025. Continued recovery in external trade and tourism, alongside resilient domestic demand, will remain the key drivers of growth, it said.
Overall, the latest 2024 forecast for the ASEAN+3 region represents a slight downward revision from the July 2024 AREO Update forecast of 4.4 percent, primarily due to adjustments for China and Vietnam. The Plus-3 economies (China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea) are projected to grow at 4.1 per cent, while ASEAN is expected to expand by 4.7 per cent in 2024.
AMRO expects the ASEAN+3 region growth to strengthen to 4.4 per cent in 2025, aligning with expectations of stable external demand and resilient domestic demand amid easier financial conditions.
“Recent developments have shifted the risk landscape for the ASEAN+3 region,” said AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor.
“The sharp but short-lived market adjustments that we witnessed in early August is a reminder of the risk of further spikes in financial market volatility. The potential escalation of protectionist policies following the US presidential election is another key risk for the region.”
The report said that inflation in the ASEAN+3 region – excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar – is forecast to moderate to 1.9 per cent in 2024, slightly lower than the July forecast of 2.1 per cent.
Overall, inflationary pressure remains well contained in the region, in line with the expectation of easing global inflation.
“An increasing number of central banks worldwide have begun easing monetary policy, and China has recently announced a broad set of stimulus measures to support its economy. These actions will have positive spillover effects on the rest of region,” Dr. Khor said.
“However, rising external and geopolitical uncertainties underscore the need to continue strengthening resilience and enhancing cooperation in the region.” - Borneo Bulletin/ANN
