The Philippines can expect some kind of hybrid response from China as Manila works with other US allies to challenge Beijing’s dominance in the South China Sea, an observer said after Manila elevated defence ties with Seoul last week.
In talks in the Philippine capital on Monday, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr agreed to establish a “strategic partnership” between the two countries, the first since diplomatic ties began 75 years ago.
In a declaration after the talks, Seoul and Manila agreed to increase cooperation on defence and reaffirmed the “importance of respect for the rule of law, maritime security and safety, and the peaceful resolution of disputes” in the South China Sea.
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“Both countries share concerns about actions in the South China Sea that are inconsistent with the rules-based international order, which undermines peace and prosperity,” the declaration said without referring directly to China.
“The two countries oppose militarisation of reclaimed features, the dangerous use of coastguard and maritime militia vessels, and coercive activities.”
The two countries’ coastguards also signed a nonbinding agreement on maritime security cooperation, including combating transnational crime, information sharing and joint search-and-rescue operations.
Kang Jun-young, a professor of Chinese studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul, said the strategic partnership between South Korea and the Philippines was significant because it was at the highest level of cooperation.
“By forming a strategic partnership, issues other than bilateral relations can always be discussed on the formal agenda, and long-term cooperation is possible,” Kang said.
“Security cooperation between South Korea, the US, Japan, and the Philippines may also be strengthened, particularly as the United States pursues a grid-type alliance and strengthens relations with the Philippines over the South China Sea issue.”
Stephen Nagy, a visiting fellow at the Japan Institute for International Affairs, said the Philippines was trying to “send a signal to China that Manila has strong allies”, but, even so, Beijing was likely to push back.
Nagy said that while China was expected to “temporarily” reduce its pressure in the face of such cooperation, “as soon as those partners leave the vicinity of the Philippines, the Chinese tend to test and escalate their actions using hybrid tactics”.
“I believe that we will continue to see this pattern emerge until either the Philippines, partners and allies permanently create cooperative networks within the region to push back against Chinese assertive behaviour, or the Chinese are successful in securing their territorial interests.”
Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said the agreement with the Philippines marked a turning point for South Korea on the South China Sea.
“For decades Seoul has largely been held back by primary security concerns in the Korean peninsula. Given the strategic priorities now, Korea is ... stepping up its presence in this dimension,” Koh said.
Koh said Manila also wanted to sign a reciprocal access agreement with Seoul, just as it did with Tokyo in July.
Such an agreement would make it easier for military equipment and troops to enter the other country for combat training and disaster response.
He said a deal in this case would depend on South Korea’s evolving strategic priorities and whether Yoon’s policy would continue in the next administration.
The Philippines has been at the forefront of clashes with China in the disputed waters in recent months. Most recently, three China Coast Guard ships and one Chinese military vessel reportedly fired water cannons at two Philippine boats on a resupply mission for other Philippine fishing boats in the waters off Scarborough Shoal on Tuesday.
To strengthen its position, the Philippines has been expanding military cooperation with the US and its allies.
Just as Marcos and Yoon were agreeing to the strategic partnership on Monday, the Philippines and the US started two weeks of naval exercises with four other allies – Australia, Japan, Canada and France.
The Sama Sama 2024 exercises involve more than 1,000 naval personnel and will cover anti-submarine, air and surface warfare as well as maritime domain awareness.
Last month, the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command conducted naval and air drills near Scarborough Shoal.
Koh said that while the Sama Sama exercise was not something new, the backing of “foreign friends” to expand the Philippines’ maritime security programmes would in the long run strengthen Manila’s ability to assert national interests in the South China Sea.
“Growing maritime security capacity, especially in the form of maritime domain awareness and physical assets to project and sustain presence in key areas of concern ... would challenge China’s primacy – though it might not compel Beijing to roll back,” Koh said.
Gregory Poling, a senior fellow and director of the Southeast Asia Programme and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at Washington-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Seoul and Manila’s “frustration” at Beijing’s behaviour had prompted them to deepen their alliances.
“South Korea has been the number one defence partner of the Philippines in terms of commercial sales. In particular, the most advanced platforms of both the Philippine Navy and Air Force are Korea-made,” Poling said.
“If this new partnership leads to more information sharing, joint exercises, and training, that would be a natural evolution. China will of course complain about it.”
More from South China Morning Post:
- Philippines’ Marcos Jnr issues strongest call yet against Beijing for South China Sea code
- South Korea signals counter-China ambitions with Philippines visit by Yoon
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang pushes for stronger economic integration with Asean
- South Korea, Philippines share ‘common understanding’ on South China Sea
- China fires water cannons at Philippine boats entering waters near Scarborough Shoal
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