Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong with moderator Lee Huay Leng, editor-in-chief of SPH Media’s Chinese Media Group, at the FutureChinaGlobal Forum on Oct 18. - Photo: Lianhe Zaobao
SINGAPORE: The West should not dismiss China, nor should Beijing underestimate the West, Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong said at a business forum on Friday (Oct 18).
“I think it is very unwise to write off China,” he said. “This works in both directions. The Westerners say, ‘We will do this and the other, and China will stay down.’ I tell them they are wrong. They do not fully believe me.”
And when he visits China and its leaders at times expound their views confidently to him, SM Lee would remind them that while the United States has a lot of problems, it also has many strengths.
“When I go to China, and sometimes, the confidence with which my hosts expound their views causes me to tell them, ‘You know, the Americans have a lot of problems. You can see all of the problems, but they have a lot of strengths, and sometimes you cannot see all of their strengths. And they are not going to disappear, and they will be there and formidable, I think, for a very long time to come.’
“And I am not sure whether they fully understand why I am saying this, so I think both sides have this danger of underestimating the other.”
SM Lee said this in a fireside chat at the FutureChina Global Forum, held at the Sands Expo & Convention Centre.
The annual event brings together business leaders, scholars and industry watchers to discuss the Chinese economy, which has in recent years struggled to stimulate growth while facing geopolitical tensions with the US.
The event is organised by Business China, a non-profit organisation that forges links between Singapore and China.
Asked by a member of the audience if US presidential candidates Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would be better for US-China relations, SM Lee said the tensions between the two countries are not based on personality. Instead, they stem from a consensus in the US that China is a challenger and “even a threat to America in the long term, potentially”.
He said if Harris wins, ties will progress more predictably, with fewer sudden shocks and less risk of things going completely out of control. If Trump wins, “things can progress in many more sudden directions”, he said.
SM Lee was asked by the moderator, Lee Huay Leng, editor-in-chief of the Chinese Media Group at SPH Media, about the Chinese perception of being misunderstood by the West.
The fundamental issue, he said, is that both China and the world have not gotten used to the fact that China has grown enormously since it began opening up in 1978.
As China’s exports move up the value chain and capture a larger proportion of the global market, it would need to rework the terms of its trade and industrial policy. This is necessary because it becomes increasingly politically untenable for the other countries to grant concessions to Beijing, such as allowing it to use subsidies to protect its market, SM Lee said.
The world, on the other hand, should induct China into the global system and accommodate its legitimate concerns and interests.
“If you do not do that, then you say, ‘No, I do not want China to be strong. I want it to remain always number two or better still, number 2.5’, I think that is going to head for a lot of mutual distrust and difficulties,” he added.
In recent weeks, China has announced a slew of measures to revive its slowing economy. SM Lee said the measures will help to boost confidence, but China’s economy is going to grow at a slower rate than the double-digit pace it once had.
This is because of its shrinking labour force, the less favourable external environment given geopolitical tensions, and the Chinese government’s move to prioritise national security over economic development.
Despite the economic difficulties that China is facing, SM Lee said he has reasons for confidence in China, noting the determination of the Chinese.
“First of all, it (China) has already been there 5,000 years. But even the factors which hold it back – for example, the fact that its population and workforce are not growing – are not things which have to bind and paralyse it. The population may not be growing, but you can make better use of the population, the workforce.”
He noted that China’s retirement age is “very low”, but this is being raised.
In China, female blue-collar workers currently retire at 50, while women in white-collar jobs retire at 55. Men retire at 60. In September, the Chinese government announced that the retirement age would be raised by up to five years, which would be phased in over the next 15 years.
China can ease its workforce constraints by making people stay productive longer and tapping women more, he noted. “Women hold up half the sky,” he said in Mandarin, quoting the late Chinese leader Mao Zedong, to applause from the audience.
SM Lee said another reason for his confidence in China is that it is world-class in many areas.
While there may be overcapacity in electric vehicles and solar panels, and state support has perhaps provided an advantage to these sectors, there is also a wealth of very advanced and high-quality technology that has made these products competitive, he added.
SM Lee was also asked about the Suzhou Industrial Park, the first government-to-government project between Singapore and China, which is celebrating its 30th anniversary this year.
He announced he will be visiting China in November to celebrate the anniversary of the park, which he was involved in at its start. While acknowledging that the project had initially faced problems, it is now “very successful” and has “gone well beyond what we expected”, he said.
“We are very happy as proud parents,” he added.
Earlier in the day, the audience heard from Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat as well as panels of academics and business leaders on topics ranging from regional economic cooperation to consumer trends in China.
Speaking at the forum, American billionaire investor Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, touched on concerns that the Chinese government has shifted its priority away from economic development.
“Is it still glorious to be rich?” he asked, referring to a slogan used by late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to encourage people to embrace reform and opening up.
“Greater clarity in policies would be important for issues like that,” he added. - The Straits Times/ANN
