The presidential race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris comes at a time of rising geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts. In the eighth part of an in-depth series, Dewey Sim reports on the candidates’ strategies for South-East Asia.
Even as the US presidential election draws near, both the Democratic and Republican candidates have remained largely silent on Southeast Asia – a region Washington has been eager to court amid its rivalry with Beijing.
While their strategies for the region are expected to be similar, analysts see Kamala Harris taking a more “personal” approach and paying more attention to issues like the South China Sea. Donald Trump might be more assertive on the disputed waterway – potentially worsening tensions and increasing the risk of confrontation with China.
Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.
James Downes, head of politics and public administration at Hong Kong Metropolitan University, expected a future Harris administration to continue existing policies, involving a combination of diplomacy, multilateralism and a focus on human rights and liberal democracy.
He said Trump’s approach was likely to be about the economy, with an emphasis on trade deals and security pacts that directly benefit the US.
The former president would be “more transactional” when dealing with US allies in the region including the Philippines, prioritising areas of mutual interest with less focus on human rights issues, he said.
“A security focus would also underpin a Trump 2.0 presidency, where Trump would likely prioritise security cooperation with countries in the region to counter increased Chinese economic influence and to maintain the US’ power in the wider region,” Downes said.
“From a policy perspective, Kamala Harris is most likely to place greater focus and attention on the region.”
Similarly, David Arase, resident professor of international politics with the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre, expected Harris to maintain the current foreign and security policy direction with only “marginal changes” in her approach.
He said Trump, while not an isolationist, was an “America firster” – meaning he would focus on threats and opportunities that affect the country’s interests. Trump would likely value those aligned with American interests and may view the Association of Southeast Asian Nations “as irrelevant to US aims and interests” given its “disparate membership”.
During his term as US president, Trump pushed for an “America first” approach to foreign policy and trade which saw a focus on reducing US trade deficits and a disengagement in global affairs.
On the economic front, Harris is expected to represent continuity from the current administration while a second Trump term could see a return of tensions over US trade deficits with countries in the region, according to Andreyka Natalegawa, an associate fellow for the Southeast Asia Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
He said Harris could bring a “more personal approach to the region” given her record of travelling to Southeast Asia. Trump, in contrast, skipped a number of regional summits including Asean meetings during his time in office.
Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser at the International Crisis Group, said Harris had signalled an “active interest” in Southeast Asia, including through trips to Thailand for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in 2022 and to Indonesia for last year’s Asean summit.
The vice-president emphasised Washington’s commitment to Southeast Asia at that summit, saying in an interview that the US had a “very significant interest ... in developing and strengthening” ties with the region.
Wyne expected Harris to build on the Joe Biden administration’s efforts to strengthen Washington’s diplomatic network in Asia, noting her six meetings with the Philippine president since he took office – the most she has met with a world leader.
On the flip side, Trump’s “America first” world view “makes him suspicious of US allies and partners, which he believes exploit US generosity”, he said.
According to Fei-Ling Wang, an international affairs professor at the Georgia Institute of Technology, there might not be a big difference in policies between the two candidates but Harris might be “more attentive and more likely to have a multilateral approach than Trump”.
“I think Harris is likely to pay more attention to the US allies in the region, the Philippines especially,” he said. “The US military, for example, is poised to assist Manila increasingly more.”
Tensions between the Philippines and China have spiked in recent months over their territorial disputes in the South China Sea, with frequent confrontations. China’s sweeping claims to most of the strategic waterway overlap with those of the Philippines and several other Southeast Asian nations.
Faced with an increasingly assertive China, the Philippines appears to have drawn closer to the US during the Biden administration. Biden has said that Washington would defend treaty ally Manila in the event of an attack in the South China Sea.
Wang said there was a high degree of bipartisan consensus in Washington on the South China Sea, but noted there were still “tactical but meaningful differences” on policy between Harris and Trump.
He expected Harris to continue the Biden administration’s push to build alliances as part of a methodical and comprehensive strategy.
“Trump seems to be more likely a unilateralist and less predictable especially in terms of ‘disruptive’ rhetoric if not action,” he said. “Both, though, are likely to play a mostly passive ‘responding’ role in the region.”
Downes at HKMU said Harris was likely to pursue a “more diplomatic and rules-based approach” to the South China Sea disputes, and prioritise dialogue and cooperation.
He said Trump “might be more assertive and security-focused, potentially heightening tensions with China in the region”.
“Harris’ policies could lead to a more stable and predictable environment in the South China Sea, whereas Trump’s approach might increase the likelihood of geopolitical confrontations and escalations, impacting overall regional stability and economic relations with China,” he added.
Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said Harris would likely inherit Biden’s policies.
He said US national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to China in August sent a clear signal that there would be a continuation of existing policies if the Democrats won the election.
As for Trump, Zhou said the former president’s future policies remained an unknown – though he could continue some of Biden’s favourable policies. “Trump doesn’t have any consideration for foreign policy ... he only cares about whether he gets elected and the rest can wait,” he said.
According to Dylan Loh, an assistant professor of foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, neither presidential candidate can afford to ignore the region – especially given the economic and geopolitical shift towards Asia.
“Any American president must pay attention to this part of the world if he or she is serious about protecting America’s national interests,” he said.
Loh said Harris’ policy on Asia was not likely to depart significantly from Biden’s and that would bring more continuity and stability. He said Trump appeared more focused on domestic issues and prioritising his so-called America first agenda.
“While that doesn’t mean [the candidates will be] completely ignoring Southeast Asia, there are questions raised about America’s commitment [to the region],” he added.
Andrew Scobell, a distinguished fellow for China at the United States Institute of Peace, said Washington had not given adequate attention to Southeast Asia in the past, but that changed as US-China competition intensified.
He did not expect a “dramatic difference” on policy towards the region between Harris and Trump, including on the South China Sea.
“The bipartisan consensus view in Washington is that China has become far more aggressive in the South China Sea and the United States must stand up to Chinese provocations and stand by its allies and friends in maritime Southeast Asia,” Scobell said.
Natalegawa from the CSIS expected both candidates to frame their foreign policy in the context of the deepening US-China rivalry, meaning Southeast Asia would play a crucial role.
“No matter who wins in November, the next administration faces a few clear priorities in the next year – shoring up relations with key allies and partners, managing tensions in the South China Sea, and presenting a positive economic agenda for the region,” he said.
More from South China Morning Post:
- Taiwan will remain a flashpoint no matter who wins the US election: analysts
- Kamala Harris silent on China, says no to direct talks with Putin: 60 Minutes interview
- ‘A better bet’: Asia backs Kamala Harris over more Trump turmoil in US presidential race
- Harris vs. Trump: Asia counts the cost of climate in US presidential polls
For the latest news from the South China Morning Post download our mobile app. Copyright 2024.
