Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto reading out vows taken by newly-appointed ministers during the inauguration at the presidential palace in Jakarta on Oct 21, 2024. - Reuters
JAKARTA: Newly-inaugurated President Prabowo Subianto will have to contend with a formidable opposition in the form of the nation’s largest political party, whose strong grassroot support could pose a challenge to his ambitious plans.
None of the cadres from Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which commands a fifth of the 580 Parliament seats, are present in Prabowo’s Cabinet line-up of more than 100 ministers and vice ministers. The remaining four-fifths of Parliament consists of seven parties that form the ruling coalition.
In the lead-up to the Cabinet’s inauguration on Oct 21 – while it was still not yet publicly known if the PDI-P would have a spot in the ruling coalition – some party leaders made seemingly diplomatic and ambiguous comments, neither confirming nor denying specific support for Prabowo’s intended ruling coalition.
They were also mum about which side of the House the party would sit on.
“The support does not have to mean becoming a Cabinet member, but by providing contributions through constructive outlook and input,” was one such comment made by PDI-P Central Board chief Deddy Yevri Hanteru Sitorus in a statement on Oct 20.
But it was perhaps one of PDI-P’s senior leaders, Ganjar Pranowo – also the party’s failed presidential candidate in the February election – who put it most directly in his Oct 17 comments.
“If PDI-P joins (the ruling coalition), it would automatically be reflected in the representation of PDI-P cadres in the Cabinet,” said Ganjar, who also told reporters that it was up to party chairperson Megawati Soekarnoputri to decide.
Prabowo and Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka were sworn-in on Oct 20. A day after, Prabowo’s Cabinet, consisting of 48 ministers and 56 vice ministers, were inaugurated.
With the PDI-P firmly in the opposition, the party which has vast grassroot support owing to its history in advocating for the welfare of the poor and everyday Indonesians, could be an impediment to the newly-minted administration.
Prabowo has plans to grow the country’s economy to 8 per cent by his third year in office, banking on several breakthrough programmes, including tourist-centric policies, establishing giant food estates, and free meals programme that would boost local production of chicken, eggs and milk.
The free food plan alone, which aims to eventually provide meals to some 80 million children nationwide by 2029, is estimated to cost 450 trillion rupiah (S$37.82 billion) yearly when it is fully rolled out. For now, it will cost about 70 trillion rupiah in the first year (2025).
“The 8 per cent growth ambition is too optimistic. It is not easy to achieve this without PDI-P in the ruling coalition,” said political analyst Sebastian Salang, noting that Prabowo could have possibly expected the PDI-P to be on board his Cabinet when he first pitched these plans.
The PDI-P has a vast and loyal supporter base, garnering the highest number of votes in 12 of the 38 provinces across Indonesia, including Central Java, parts of Papua and Kalimantan. PDI-P cadres are also known to have the fewest number of cadres that jump over to other parties.
Its grassroot appeal is the PDI-P’s main strength, said Sebastian, noting that it had also proven its political might when it became a strong opposition force during then-president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s term in 2004-2014.
In 2006, PDI-P initiated a Parliament inquiry on the government’s accelerated but opaque oil and gas block concession granting process that involved a breach of law by giving excessive rights to the contractor.
This move prompted an improvement in processes, and the PDI-P was also hailed as an effective check and balance in Parliament.
As the largest party in Parliament and with its support network, the PDI-P has the potential to be a “formidable” force in the House, said Sebastian, adding that the party could, in some ways, put pressure on the new administration to govern more effectively or face criticism.
“The Prabowo administration must formulate policies that make sense and are acceptable to the public, otherwise (Prabowo’s plans) would not work,” he added.
Indonesia, which has a very active Parliament that regularly supervises policy decision-making of the government, also adopts a direct presidential election system.
Typically, after successfully getting elected, a new president would usually allocate some of the Cabinet minister posts to political parties supporting the ruling coalition. Other members of the Cabinet are made out of non-partisan technocrats.
Discussion over Prabowo’s administration picks and the PDI-P’s possible inclusion had been rife in the months leading up to the Oct 21 inauguration, with ongoing talks among involved parties.
However, a source with knowledge of the matter said that talks over the PDI-P joining the ruling coalition had stalled on Oct 15 after Megawati disagreed with Prabowo’s decision to appoint into the Cabinet several figures with whom she has fractured relations or poor ties with.
Some of these figures had been in past-president Joko Widodo’s Cabinet, and were reappointed when Prabowo came to power.
Sebastian said: “PDI-P must have been upset with the line-up of the new Cabinet as some of Widodo’s closest people play a large part in it.”
As many as 16 ministers from the previous administration, including Erick Thohir, whose family was a main donor to Widodo’s 2019 presidential campaign, and Budi Arie Setiadi, who fell out with Megawati, remained in the Cabinet.
Erick retained the position of the state-owned enterprise minister, while Budi was given a new position as the cooperative minister.
However, the PDI-P would still have to gain support from lawmakers from other parties to gain a 30 per cent seat block to resist proposed policies and become an influential opposition force in Parliament, said Aditya Perdana, executive director at Jakarta-based Algoritma Research and Consulting.
He told The Straits Times that one way to achieve this was if the PDI-P joined hands with Nasdem – together their combined seats in Parliament would amount to 31 per cent – and work together to balance out the ruling coalition.
Nasdem’s platform mirrors that of PDI-P, which places emphasis on nationalism and pluralism.
Nasdem is the only member of the seven-party ruling coalition that does not have cadre representation in the Cabinet.
Nasdem party chairman Surya Paloh had earlier declared its party support for Prabowo’s administration – being part of the ruling coalition – but opted to stay out of the Cabinet, a move he boasted as a pioneer move in Indonesian politics.
Previously, any party joining the ruling coalition has always been given ministerial posts in the Cabinet.
One might interpret this situation as a way for Nasdem to “politely” hint that it might not always align with the ruling coalition on all matters, said Sebastian.
“In Indonesian politics, you don’t often tell people directly you don’t want them, or you don’t (want to) join them,” he added. - The Straits Times/ANN
