The return of Donald Trump to the White House adds a further layer of uncertainty for developing countries seeking to balance their relations between the United States and China.
The Republican candidate had vowed to impose 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports during the election and if he goes through with his pledge, countries in Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia will have to consider how to deal with the impact on their own economic and trade policies.
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Analysts said countries the latter region, in particular, will have to think about what the implications for their security policy will be if tensions between the two superpowers intensify.
Meanwhile, in Africa the biggest concern may be a further loss of US interest in the continent, where China has a long-standing presence and commitments.
Trump’s approach to China “will likely impact the extent to which Latin American countries will be able to pursue more independent and pragmatic foreign policies with respect to Beijing,” according to Zoon Ahmed Khan, a research fellow at Tsinghua University’s Belt and Road Strategy Institute.
However, a nationalistic and “inward-looking” administration may also propel governments to “diversify their strategic and economic stakes” with strong players such as China.
“It is likely to leave a power vacuum that creates space for China to strengthen its cultural and economic outreach,” said Khan.
Brazil recently turned down an invitation to join the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s transcontinental infrastructure project, but Zhan said some Latin Americans believe it may be more likely to sign on now, as Trump may “focus more on Mexico and border issues”.
“It is too soon to say whether the Trump administration will impose trade restrictions on countries who welcome Chinese investments,” she added.
To improve their bargaining power, Latin American countries might seek increased collaboration through bodies such the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) of Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay; the Pacific alliance of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru; and the Organisation of American States.
On the other hand, ring-wing leaders such as Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and Argentina’s Javier Milei are likely to find “more conducive grounds” with Trump on issues such as immigration, economics and a reduction in multilateralism.
Koh King Kee, president of the Malaysian think tank Centre for New Inclusive Asia, said Southeast Asian countries had a long-standing goal of staying neutral in the US-China rivalry.
Based on Trump’s previous term in office, he said the White House would probably “show less interest” in the region than a Democrat administration would have done, but he expected Washington to “maintain a consistent foreign policy” towards the region.
“Given its bipartisan Indo-Pacific Strategy, members of [the Association of Southeast Asian Nations] will remain politically and strategically important to the US,” said Koh.
While prioritising strong economic cooperation with China, Asean countries may “tilt slightly” towards the US on regional security, as tensions rise between Beijing and rival South China Sea claimants, including the Philippines and Vietnam.
If Trump goes through with his plan to impose heavy tariffs on China, it will “invariably impact” trade, Koh said, adding: “It is likely that more Chinese and multinational enterprises will shift their manufacturing to Asean countries, indirectly fostering greater economic cooperation between China and the region.”
Beijing-based political analyst Xu Qinduo said Trump’s protectionist policies would prove a “headache” for many countries, including developing states that rely heavily on international trade.
“Against free trade and globalisation, Trump may impose tariffs on countries besides China, such as Vietnam,” said Xu, a senior fellow at the Pangoal think tank.
“Countries that have a trade surplus with the US may draw the attention of Trump and face extra tariffs.”
His unpredictability may drive developing countries to strengthen ties with China, shifting the approach of many that rely on Washington for security and Beijing for business.
“Asian countries will tread more carefully with a Trump administration, and those who have been striking a balance between Washington and Beijing could tilt toward the latter for better stability or stand firmer on their own,” said Xu.
“They would hope that there is no military confrontation between the two powers over Taiwan or the South China Sea, but Trump’s administration could well be filled with hawkish anti-China strategists.”
Meanwhile in Africa, the US already faced considerable challenges in regaining influence, according to Gustavo de Carvalho, a senior researcher at the South African Institute of International Affairs.
With African countries forging their own paths in a changing global order, the US must show genuine commitment to aligning with Africa’s vision of integration and support the African Continental Free Trade Area, he said.
“Any successful strategy will require more than just promises of aid or democracy promotion – it will need to focus on meaningful, mutually beneficial investment that supports Africa’s long-term development,” de Carvalho said.
Tawana Kupe, an independent researcher and higher education strategy adviser in South Africa, said American foreign policy is more focused on other regions.
“This is not to say America has no interests in Africa. They are not major compared to a rising rival power like China and Russia,” said Kupe, founder of the African Centres for the Study of the US at Wits University and University of Pretoria.
A protectionist US economic policy could have implications for Africa’s exports and the US African Growth and Opportunity Act, which has the goal of assisting the economies of sub-Saharan Africa and improving its economic relationship with America.
“America’s competition and tensions with China has implications for Africa given both powers compete for trade, resources and political influence in Africa,” said Kupe. “But, again, it is not as if they see Africa as a major region for their foreign policy objectives.”
Additional reporting by Jevans Nyabiage
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