Supporters of Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) wave party flags and placards ahead of the general election in 2015. - Photo: Reuters
SINGAPORE (SCMP): For retired educator K.H. Seah, voting had always been a straightforward choice in favour of Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).
Lately, however, the 67-year-old finds himself mulling over his vote.
“I’m feeling the rising costs of everything. I’m in the middle class but I don’t feel its benefits,” said Seah, adding that the goods and services tax increase to 9 per cent earlier this year, along with rising certificate of entitlement prices for car ownership, had hit people like him hard.
With a hint of nostalgia, Seah said he missed the decisiveness of founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew, contrasting it with the current leadership’s more consultative approach.
Whether Seah’s sentiments reflect a dissatisfied minority among PAP supporters or indicate a growing trend will be revealed in the next general election, which must be called by November next year.
It will mark the 16th time that the party has sought a mandate from the island republic’s citizens since its uninterrupted rule of Singapore began in 1959. On Thursday, the PAP will celebrate its 70th anniversary, a milestone that may coincide with the handover of party leadership from current secretary general Lee Hsien Loong to Lawrence Wong, who took over as prime minister in May.
PAP supporters and office workers gather to listen to Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's then-prime minister, during an election rally in 2015. - Photo: AFP
Political analysts tell This Week in Asia that while the PAP is still dominant, it is confronting an electorate eager to have greater checks on the system and willing to give credible opposition figures a chance. Beyond the water's edge, it will also have to deal with an increasingly fragmented world order with old assumptions about the benefits of multilateralism and globalisation coming under question.
Is the PAP at 70 able to adapt to these changing realities? Can it continue to be the dominant party of choice for the country? Observers, opposition and insiders find themselves on the same side examining these questions as the country inches ever closer to election season.
According to Bilveer Singh, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore (NUS), the PAP's rise to power and its 65 years of dominance stem from unique domestic and international factors that are now receding.
"The PAP proved a success in holding onto power," he said, but that success "is also sowing the seeds of its entropy".
Among modern multiparty parliamentary democracies, the PAP is one of the longest-serving governing parties. Only Mexico's Institutional Revolutionary Party, which governed for 71 years, has a longer record among countries with universal suffrage.
Founded in 1954 with the goal of achieving independence from British rule, the PAP was first led by Lee Kuan Yew as secretary general. It secured power in the Legislative Assembly election of 1959, quickly confronting internal divisions, including a leftist faction that later formed Barisan Sosialis, as well as a looming communist threat.
"Since Coldstore and Pechah, not a single political force has emerged in Singapore to challenge the PAP, guaranteeing it unchallenged predominance since 1963," said Singh, referring to the anti-communist operations in 1963 that resulted in more than 100 detentions without trial, including members of Barisan Sosialis.
With domestic stability secured, the PAP transformed Singapore into a thriving financial hub, attracting foreign investments and expertise while fostering a pro-business environment characterised by low labour costs, Singh said.
Shashi Jayakumar, who has written books about the PAP's history, emphasised the party's historical significance.
"To many in the pioneer generation, it is an institution - the party which gave them and their children uplift and prosperity. The issue is that many from that generation are no longer with us," he said.
"Many in the younger generation respect the party for what it did in the past - but that to them is firmly in the past - this is Lee Kuan Yew's party. What, now, is the party doing for them? They want to know."
Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong talks to the media following a meeting with Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta last week. - Photo: AFP
A new leader
While leadership transitions from the elder Lee to Goh Chok Tong and then from Goh to Lee Hsien Loong were planned years in advance, the transition from the PAP's third-generation (3G) leaders to the fourth generation (4G) has been more tumultuous. Such transitions are typically designed to avoid unsettling investors and markets.
Wong, 51, was the second choice to become prime minister after Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat, 63, stepped aside in 2021, citing his age and a lack of "sufficiently long runway" for leadership.
Wong's rise was expedited; he served just two years as deputy compared to Lee Hsien Loong's 14 years and Goh's five. He was chosen in April 2022, with 15 of the 19 party's top officials, including 4G ministers, supporting him as their next leader.
While Wong has yet to officially assume the title of secretary general, all eyes will be on the party convention on November 24 to see if he secures the position. There is precedent for outgoing prime ministers not immediately transferring party leadership; Lee Kuan Yew remained secretary general until 1992, two years after Goh Chok Tong became prime minister. However, Lee Hsien Loong was made secretary general just months after taking office in 2004.
Observers anticipate Wong will be appointed at the convention. Former PAP MP Inderjit Singh said that not making Wong secretary general would be unwise as Singapore heads toward the polls. "There should be no doubts in voters' minds about who is leading the future government," he said.
Mustafa Izzuddin, a senior international-affairs analyst at the Solaris Strategies Singapore consultancy, agreed that showcasing confidence in Wong's leadership was crucial for the party's image.
However, Wong still faces challenges as he was not the first-choice leader and has much to prove in the coming elections, NUS' Singh said.
That said, a public opinion survey by Jom magazine indicated he has made a positive impression, ranking as the most popular 4G leader, well ahead of the rest
Many will be closely watching to see if Wong can maintain a tough stance against the opposition while preserving the "personal goodwill" he has garnered from various segments of the population, Jayakumar said.
Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's first prime minister, shakes hands with his son, Lee Hsien Loong, after the latter was sworn into office as the city state's new leader in 2004. - Photo: AP
The PAP has also had to grapple with the challenge of attracting the right talent. Jayakumar, who is executive director of security consultancy SJK Geostrategic Advisory, noted that over time there might be the danger of a "lessening in quality" among candidates as citizens who have done well for themselves in the public and private sectors feel less compelled to join the party.
Nevertheless, the ruling party still attracts talent from various sectors, said former PAP MP Hong Hai, bolstered by its strong electoral prospects and attractive remuneration, which is among the highest globally.
However, the competition for qualified candidates has intensified in recent years, as opposition parties are now successfully courting capable individuals who also possess "a sense of mission", Hong said.
As the opposition Workers' Party continues to secure more seats in parliament, it will embolden its supporters to consider running for office, he said, aided by an increasingly open online environment that encourages bold public discussions about politics.
In the 2020 general election, the opposition won a record 10 out of 93 seats, with the Workers' Party claiming a second multi-seat constituency. The government also formally appointed its secretary general, Pritam Singh, as the leader of the opposition for the first time.
NUS' Singh said that the PAP must pay special attention to its support among voters under 40 and over 60, as rising living costs - from housing to healthcare - are pressing issues for these demographics. Despite government assurances, these groups need to feel that real help is on the way, he said.
Wong, in his inaugural National Day Message in August, acknowledged inflation as a major concern, highlighting how global price increases were affecting daily expenses for Singaporeans and emphasising the government's strategy of maintaining a strong Singapore dollar to mitigate these effects.
For the over-60 age group, deeper connections with 4G leaders are essential, Singh said, as their politically formative years were shaped by a different leadership cohort.
"Questions about how the PAP selects its top leaders and whether this is best for Singapore ... will continue to be asked," he said, ultimately leading to discussions about the necessity of a "bigger opposition presence" to keep the PAP in check.
Internationally, the city state faces an uncertain world order, raising additional questions about the PAP's ability to adapt and confront challenges to stability and pragmatic governance, according to Nydia Ngiow, managing director at at strategic advisory firm BowerGroupAsia in Singapore.
"Singaporeans are feeling the pressure as local living costs rise in response to global economic challenges, particularly as geopolitical dynamics evolve and both countries and companies grapple with the economic impact of recent US electoral outcomes on the region," she said.
"Wong and his team must therefore demonstrate not just continuity, but also adaptability in navigating an increasingly complex global environment."
Supporters of Singapore's Workers' Party celebrate winning a record number of seats in the 2020 election. - Photo: Xinhua
The 60% threshold
A party activist, speaking on condition of anonymity, told This Week in Asia that the PAP needs a refresh to address the growing appetite for plurality in parliament.
"Younger voters do not have the same loyalty towards the PAP as the older generations. Why would they? That's why we keep emphasising refreshing the party to engage young people better about what the party stands for and will do for them," he said.
The party embarked on a six-month "Refresh PAP" initiative earlier this year, engaging more than 2,300 activists and partners to renew its mission. Following this initiative, the party signalled a commitment to fostering broader, two-way communication with Singaporeans.
In an unprecedented move, social media influencers and local celebrities were invited to a PAP event in June and referred to as "Friends of PAP".
"As the dynamics of the electors change, the PAP has to constantly refresh, change tactics and find new ways to attract voters. To do this they need to understand the ground better," said Inderjit Singh, a former PAP MP from 1996 to 2015.
"The mistake the PAP can make is if they think what worked in the past can work in the future. I see some of this thinking in some areas of how they make policies, and I think this could create issues for the PAP in the future. So, the PAP has to constantly refresh, change tactics and find new ways to attract voters"
Another hard truth the party must confront is the realisation that achieving a popular vote above 60 per cent is not the only measure of its connection with the population. So far, the PAP has never dipped below this threshold, but clinging to it as a psychological benchmark is unnecessarily burdensome, analysts argue, particularly in a time of contested politics.
Governments can still be strong and effective even with mandates below 60 per cent, observers say.
"There is nothing magical about 60 per cent," said Hong, the former PAP MP. "The PAP can continue to dominate with a diminishing share of the popular vote if the opposition remains divided. In recent years, except for the WP, opposition parties tend to suffer problems in cohesion."
Eugene Tan, a political observer and law professor at Singapore Management University, noted that theoretically, the party could still secure a supermajority in parliament with a lower vote share than it is accustomed to, allowing it to govern effectively.
"Beyond quantitative measures, a strong mandate can also be qualitative electoral outcomes such as the PAP winning at least two-thirds of the seats and the election not being divisive," he said. "This means that there remains an intact broad middle ground which requires all political parties to contest for votes across all strata of society."
Other liberal democracies have seen their middle ground shrink due to polarised politics, which poses a more significant threat, he said.
Jayakumar said that in interviews with party leaders for his book, A History of the People's Action Party 1985-2021, they expressed the belief that while governing is becoming increasingly difficult, ensuring the party's electoral success remains within their control.
The notion that the PAP is disconnected from the electorate is a narrative propagated by opposition voices, and it is one the party must counteract, he said.
"What it will have to face and develop an effective counter narrative to is the idea on the ground, and put forward by some in the opposition or opposition-linked figures, that the PAP is not the party it used to be and has somehow fallen from its earlier lofty standards," Jayakumar said. - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
