Students counting voters during a general election training simulation at Karangpandang state senior high school in Karanganyar, Central Java, on Sept 27, 2023. - Antara
JAKARTA: Former Central Java Police chief Ahmad Luthfi and former military chief Andika Perkasa remain locked in tight competition for Central Java governor, as shown in two surveys released a week before voting day on Nov 27.
An opinion poll released by Indikator Politik Indonesia on Sunday showed that Luthfi and running mate Muslim cleric Taj Yasin Maimoen were leading with 47.2 per cent, but Andika and his running mate Hendrar “Hendi” Prihadi, a former Semarang mayor, follow closely with 43.5 per cent.
The remaining 9.3 per cent of respondents were undecided in the survey that took place from Nov. 7 to 13. But Luthfi’s 3.7 percentage-point lead over Andika, who is running on the ticket of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), is still considered too narrow, with Indikator founder Burhanuddin Muhtadi saying the competition is still too close to call.
“Because of the very small gap [between the two candidates] and the remaining respondents who are still undecided, anything can happen on voting day,” Burhanuddin said during the release of the survey results on Sunday.
Indikator also found that 29.5 per cent of all respondents, regardless of their current preference, said they might yet still change their minds.
Indikator polled 1,900 respondents of voting age across Central Java in person and the results of the survey had a 2.3 per cent margin of error with a 95 per cent confidence level.
Central Java has become the proxy battleground between the PDI-P, the largest party in Central Java, and former president Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who has openly endorsed Luthfi over the past week.
Luthfi and Yasin are running on the ticket of the grand alliance led by the Onward Indonesia Coalition (KIM) that supports the administration of President Prabowo Subianto.
The Indikator survey came a day after another pollster, Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), published its own opinion poll showing it was the Andika-Hendi pair who led in the race, but by a slim margin of 3.4 percentage points.
Andika-Hendi’s electability grew to 50.4 per cent from 48.1 per cent in October, when they overtook Luthfi-Yasin as the frontrunners.
Luthfi-Yasin meanwhile stood at 47 percent this month, a slight decrease from 47.5 per cent in October.
The remaining 2.6 per cent of respondents were undecided, a slight decrease from 4.4 per cent last month.
The results of the SMRC survey, which involved a face-to-face interview of 1,200 respondents of voting age in Central Java from Nov 7 to 12, had a 2.9 per cent margin of error and a confidence interval of 95 per cent
Despite showing contrasting results as to who is the frontrunner in the Central Java election, SMRC concluded that Andika’s 3.4 percentage-point lead over Luthfi is too precariously narrow and is still within the margin of error.
“Statistically speaking, the competition for the governor’s seat is still too close to call,” SMRC executive director Deni Irvani said on Saturday.
It is not the first time that opinion polls have produced conflicting results on the frontrunners in the upcoming simultaneous, nationwide regional head races.
On Oct 23, Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) released the results of an opinion poll on the three-way Jakarta governor’s race showing Pramono Anung and running mate Rano Karno as the frontrunners with an electability of 41.6 per cent, overtaking Ridwan Kamil and running mate Suswono.
A day later, Poltracking Indonesia released its survey that took place around the same time as the LSI poll.
The Poltracking survey, however, had contrasting results, with Ridwan and Suswono remaining the frontrunners in the race after their electability slightly increased to 51.6 per cent in October from 47.5 in September. - The Jakarta Post/ANN
