The US must prepare for a potential conflict with China by raising its defence spending to more than three per cent of GDP, a bipartisan group of lawmakers heard on Wednesday.
The recommendation came during an interactive exercise for members of the House select committee on China, based on a scenario predicted for 2026, and hosted by Washington-based think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
US officials have frequently cited 2027 as a critical point for when they expect Beijing to be capable of mounting a serious military threat to Taiwan, the self-ruled island which many regard as a potential flashpoint between the two powers.
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“The Chinese defence industrial base is what I would call on a wartime footing,” Seth Jones, president of the CSIS defence and security department, told lawmakers at the US Capitol Building.
While noting that war with China was not necessarily imminent, Jones said that Beijing was “building capabilities for ambitious purposes” and would be in a position by 2027 or so to fight the US.
Beijing views Taiwan as part of China to be reunited, by force if necessary. Like most countries, the US does not recognise the island as an independent state. However, Washington is committed by law to support Taiwan’s military defence capability.
In pushing for a defence spending increase on the current level of about three per cent of the US gross domestic product, Jones echoed the calls of defence hawks who believe that Washington must adopt a “cold war” stance against China.
“We were anywhere between 15 and six during the Cold War, so as a percentage of GDP we’re low,” he said, adding that the United States is no longer in a “peacetime environment”.
Speaking after the event, Jones told the South China Morning Post that he does not have a particular figure in mind. “I don’t know whether it’s 4 per cent or 5 per cent or 6 per cent ... but 3 per cent is not going to cut it,” he said.
Among the attendees who appeared receptive to the proposal was Rob Wittman, a Republican from Virginia who has pushed President Joe Biden’s administration to increase the defence budget.
According to Wittman, there would be “no way” for the US to develop a defence industrial capacity to match China’s by 2027, assuming current funding levels.
Noting that the simulation focused only on “exquisite” defence platforms – cutting-edge technologies likely to encounter high costs and delays – Wittman called for consideration to be given to developing faster and cheaper military platforms.
But Raja Krishnamoorthi, an Illinois Democrat and ranking member of the committee, said that he preferred to focus on redeploying the resources the US already has, rather than increasing the defence budget.
“People already think there’s too much waste,” he said, noting that Washington’s current defence budget is about US$900 billion.
Krishnamoorthi asked if there was “low-hanging fruit” that Congress could tackle.
In response, Jones highlighted submarines, as well as air, subsurface, and surface autonomous platforms, in addition to stand-off weapons that are designed to allow operators to engage a target from a significant distance.
Jones also said the US could look to Japan and South Korea, two major allies in the Indo-Pacific region and the world’s biggest shipbuilders outside China, to help increase its battleship supply.
Japan hosts 15 major US military bases and is home to the highest number of American military personnel stationed overseas. Tokyo has also been rapidly upgrading military facilities on Yonaguni, which lies only 110km (68 miles) east of Taiwan.
The lawmakers heard about numerous challenges to America’s defence industrial base, including its reliance on China’s critical minerals – essential for building advanced military systems and weapons – as well as a shrinking shipbuilding capacity and an insufficient stockpile of critical munitions.
Matt Cancian, an associate professor at the US Naval War College who also took part in the briefing, said that defending Taiwan also presented unique strategic challenges compared to the situation in Ukraine.
According to Cancian, unlike the war in Ukraine – where military aid and equipment flow steadily through Europe – Taiwan would face a starkly different reality, in which the PLA could swiftly blockade any incoming supplies in the event of a war.
Cancian and Jones agreed, however, that undersea technologies remain an advantage for the US over the PLA, which has made slow progress in manufacturing high-end submarines despite decades of pushing to modernise its navy.
The assessments about China reached during Wednesday’s briefing echoed some of the recent findings from congressional advisory bodies.
A report released this week by the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, an independent panel that advises lawmakers on China, found there is “no evidence” that China is preparing for an imminent war.
“But the various reforms China has made to its defence mobilisation system over time undeniably make it more confident and prepared for hostilities than it was five years ago,” it said.
Earlier this year, the US released its first National Industrial Defence Strategy, acknowledging that a declining industrial base, supply-chain constraints and the outflow of weapons to Ukraine have left it vulnerable as companies supplying the Pentagon face mounting frustration over its lumbering pace.
The defence industrial base, as used in Washington, typically refers to organisations, facilities, and resources that provide defence-related materials, products, and services to the US government – primarily, but not exclusively, the Department of Defence.
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