Analysts say Sara Duterte is unravelling because lawmakers allied with President Marcos are closing in on her family. - PHOTO: REUTERS
MANILA (The Straits Times/ANN): The gloves are off between the two most powerful titans of Philippine politics.
The usually soft-spoken President Ferdinand Marcos Jr on Nov 25 declared he would face Vice-President Sara Duterte head-on, after his erstwhile ally said in a midnight rant on Nov 23 that she has hired an assassin to kill him, his wife and his cousin, the House Speaker, should she end up dead as their rivalry heats up.
Marcos has green-lit multiple investigations into the assassination threat.
Analysts say Duterte is unravelling because lawmakers allied with Marcos are closing in on her family, now that its alliance with the president has crumbled.
The unfolding political drama threatens to upend the Philippine political landscape ahead of the May 2025 midterm polls, seen as a referendum on the Marcos presidency.
Duterte is currently under investigation for the alleged misuse of 612.5 million pesos (S$13.9 million) in confidential funds intended for sensitive and classified purposes, granted in 2023 to the Office of the Vice-President and the Department of Education, which she headed until her resignation from the Marcos Cabinet in June.
Instead of directly explaining how she had spent the funds, Ms Duterte has dubbed the probe mere political repression by her enemies.
There are separate congressional inquiries on the bloody drug war waged by Ms Duterte’s father, former president Rodrigo Duterte, who faces a crimes-against-humanity probe by the International Criminal Court.
Tensions came to a head last week when legislators cited Ms Duterte’s chief of staff Zuleika Lopez in contempt, and detained her in the House of Representatives for giving evasive answers. Duterte has since been engaged in a stand-off with lawmakers after they threatened to move her close aide to a jail cell instead.
The Vice-President has refused to leave Lopez’s side as she remains in a government-run hospital due to panic attacks. Duterte has turned combative in her interviews in defence of her staff, who have cried and even vomited in front of cameras.
“We cannot take this kind of criminal threat lightly. I’m not letting this one slide,” said Marcos in a video statement after the Vice-President’s assassination threat against him.
His government was quick to act, with law enforcement agencies saying they are now investigating the Vice-President’s remarks. The military vowed it would be loyal to the President.
Amid the shocked national reaction, Duterte on Nov 26 walked back the threat, insisting that it was a “plan without flesh”.
“Common sense should be enough for us to understand and accept that a supposed conditional act of revenge does not constitute an active threat. This is a plan without flesh,” she said in a statement.
“I am confident that an honest scrutiny would easily expose this narrative to be farce, imagined, or nothing at all.”
Political science professor Arjan Aguirre said Duterte was throwing her weight around as she believes she has power over Marcos, who she feels owes the presidency to her.
Duterte was once the top contender in the 2022 presidential election. But she agreed to become Marcos’ vice-presidential running mate, allowing him to tap the Duterte family’s huge support base and seal a comeback for the disgraced Marcos dynasty.
“She’s exhibiting an unusual kind of hubris here,” Prof Aguirre, a political science assistant professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, told The Straits Times.
Duterte’s antics were also meant to rile up her supporters – all 32 million of them who voted for her in 2022, said political science associate professor Jean Encinas-Franco from the University of the Philippines in Manila. Marcos secured only 31 million votes. Filipinos vote separately for the country’s president and vice-president at the polls.
Pushed to the wall by the Marcos faction, Duterte is employing the same shock-and-awe strategy popularised by her father, which gained him infamy on the international stage but further endeared the Dutertes to the Filipino masses.
“I sense the media exposure was intentional on her part. She wants people to think that she’s fighting back,” Prof Encinas-Franco told ST. “She wants to say that this is political persecution, but she doesn’t want to be seen as a victim”.
She has consistently been getting higher trust and approval ratings compared with Marcos, which may explain why she appears confident about attacking the President now, both analysts said. But her polling numbers are slowly dipping, which could be a sign that even Duterte supporters are getting tired of her fight with Marcos.
“There seems to be miscalculation on her part because she keeps resorting to the same approach as her father. But conditions have changed. Her father is no longer president,” said Prof Aguirre.
At some point, Filipinos would start demanding a real explanation on how Duterte had spent millions in the confidential funds at a time when the country is grappling with soaring inflation and unemployment.
“In the long run, her base will get tired of all her strategies. She has to be wary,” said Prof Encinas-Franco. If Duterte does not play her cards right, it could hurt her presidential ambitions in 2028, she added.
As the Philippine political elites continue to play their Game of Thrones, the people are now challenged to demand accountability from the leaders who once promised them a better life by uniting the country.
They also should not be distracted by the political drama, said Prof Aguirre, especially when Marcos and Duterte have yet to address the perennial economic problems plaguing the country for years.
“Everything happening right now is just a distraction, a power struggle between two factions of a broken coalition,” he added.
“In the midterm elections, Filipinos should not think it’s all about the fight between Duterte and Marcos. What they should be thinking of is their economic recovery. Who among these leaders will really help improve their lives?” - The Straits Times/ANN
