A Chinese military vessel fires a water cannon at a Philippine resupply boat on its way to the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea in March. - Reuters
WASHINGTON (SCMP): Manila should strengthen coordination with South-East Asian nations on its policy towards China, a retired Philippine naval officer said on Monday (Dec 2), as engagement with Washington alone risks potential stronger resistance by Beijing over the contested South China Sea.
“I believe that we made some mistakes ... we could have engaged at least most of the Asean member states that are surrounding the South China Sea more effectively [and] we could have consulted them [about] our action because they do not agree with our China policy,” said Rommel Ong, a former vice-commander in the Philippine Navy.
However, Ong said he was “not optimistic” that the Philippines could convince Association of South-East Asian Nations member states to support Manila’s concerns.
“We have to accept that China successfully divided Asean,” he said at a discussion in Washington. “The efficacy of China’s geo-economic strategy in Asean worked well for them and has allowed them to exert some form of leverage over the different Asean member state capitals, particularly in terms of influencing the political and economic elites of these countries.”
China and four Asean member states – Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines – have overlapping maritime claims to the resource-rich South China Sea, and Manila has been the most forceful in pushing back against Beijing.
The Chinese government has blamed Washington for supporting Manila in the South China Sea encounters.
But some South-East Asian countries are concerned that the more Manila coordinates with the US, the more likely China will feel pushed into taking unilateral action on their South China Sea claims.
In a recent move that could provoke Beijing, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin revealed the existence of Task Force-Ayungin, which is composed of American service members and named after the Philippine designation for the Second Thomas Shoal.
An atoll in the Spratly Islands, the Second Thomas Shoal, known as Renai Reef in China, has become the region’s most volatile hot spot after Beijing disrupted – sometimes violently – Manila’s resupply missions to a small detachment of Filipino marines there.
During his visit to the Philippines last month, Austin also announced that the US government had given the Philippine Navy an undisclosed number of unstaffed surface vessels for its operations in the South China Sea and promised “many more” would be delivered before the end of President Joe Biden’s administration.
Ong, who retired in 2019, said he expected no major change in Washington’s policy with Manila under president-elect Donald Trump, who takes office on Jan 20.
“We worked well with President Trump during his first term, and I believe that Biden’s policy actually is a continuation of Trump’s policy during his first term, so I don’t see any major change with Trump’s policy moving forward,” he said.
But Ong said there were suspicions about the depth of US responsiveness on Southeast Asian issues as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East would likely complicate Washington’s prioritisation of resources. The lack of free trade deals with Southeast Asia may also undermine Washington’s influence in the region, he added.
In 2017, Trump pulled the US out of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership brokered by his predecessor, president Barack Obama. Although the Biden administration implemented its Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with the focus on trade and supply chains, it is not designed as a traditional comprehensive free trade agreement.
Meanwhile, China has been a member of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a huge trade deal with 10 Asean member states as well as Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.
Beijing has also sought to join the CPTPP, a trade deal that evolved from the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the US quit.
Ong noted that Japan could be seen as a countervailing force to China’s influence in the region.
Japan is the second largest source of direct foreign investment into Asean, and it has also stepped up its support of the Philippines, including signing an reciprocal access agreement in July that is expected to enhance military cooperation through joint exercises and maritime security efforts.
India, which has a long-running territorial dispute with China over the Himalayas, could potentially be another alternative to China’s regional influence, he added.
“If India can get its act together, maybe it can compete with China in terms of actual economic engagement with Asean, just so that there’s enough competition going around.” - South China Morning Post
