MANILA: The Philippines widened its projected growth range for next year, citing uncertainties over US President-elect Donald Trump’s trade policy that could mean "high tariffs everywhere.”
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s economic team now expects 2025 growth to be at 6%-8% from 6.5%-7.5% previously, the Development Budget Coordination Committee said on Monday (Dec 2). The panel tempered this year’s growth projection to 6%-6.5% from a prior assumption of 6%-7%.
"We are moving at a more uncertain world,” National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio Balisacan (pic) said in a briefing, pointing to the Trump administration’s return to the White House.
"If it pursues what it said it would do during the campaign, that would mean high tariffs everywhere - and that would reduce growth not just in the US in the longer term, but also globally because we are all part of the supply chain,” Balisacan said. On the other hand, growing the US economy would benefit the rest of the world, he added.
The committee also adjusted the projected economic growth range for 2026 to 2028 from the previous assumption of 6.5%-8% in June.
"The growth assumptions for 2025 to 2028 have been given a wider band of 6%-8%, reflecting the anticipated impact of structural reforms and evolving domestic and global uncertainties,” Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman said during the same briefing.
The Philippine peso is the second-worst performer among actively traded currencies in Asia in the past three months, with Trump’s tariff threats driving up the dollar. The local currency is now forecast to average 57-57.50 to the greenback this year compared with the previous assumption of 56-58.
The impeachment complaint filed against Vice President Sara Duterte on Monday will unlikely affect business sentiment, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said, adding consumption and public spending will continue to grow. "If they think that there will still be more consumption, then business will invest.”- Bloomberg
