A protester holds a placard during a rally to call for South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's resignation in Seoul on Dec 5, 2024. - Reuters
SEOUL: The opposition’s move to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol has gained momentum, since his surprise declaration of martial law late on Dec 3.
The main opposition Democratic Party of Korea has accused him of committing a crime similar to treason or insurrection, which provides grounds for impeachment.
The Constitution protects presidents from civil lawsuits and criminal charges unless they are convicted of treason.
Here are the three possible scenarios that could unfold following the opposition-led assembly’s vote for an impeachment motion against Yoon scheduled for 7pm (6pm Singapore time) on Dec 7.
1. If the Assembly passes the impeachment motion
An impeachment motion of the president requires at least 200 or two-thirds of the 300-member Assembly to vote in favour of it to be forwarded to the Constitutional Court, which has the authority to finalise the proposal.
The bar is higher compared with the minimum requirement for other impeachment motions, which is the simple majority.
The opposition parties, including the Democratic Party, currently hold a combined 192 seats in the Assembly, having secured the parliamentary majority during the April 10 general election.
At least eight lawmakers from the ruling People Power Party would have to vote in favour of the motion for it to pass.
If the motion passes, Yoon would be immediately stripped of his constitutional powers and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo would serve as the country’s leader in acting capacity for the time being.
The Constitutional Court would then launch a trial to decide whether they would uphold the National Assembly’s decision. For the court to uphold the impeachment, six out of its nine judges would need to vote in favor of the motion.
A presidential election would take place within 60 days if the court decides to impeach Yoon.
Yoon’s possible impeachment could become the worst-case scenario for the conservative bloc as it would allow the main opposition leader Representative Lee Jae-myung to run for presidency somewhat freely from many legal risks, according to a political commentator here.
“If Yoon is impeached, it would allow Lee to run for presidency with lighter legal risks, as top court rulings for the five cases he is involved in, will take some time to be handed down. It would allow him to run for presidency within 60 days of Yoon’s impeachment,” political commentator Park Sang-byeong said via phone.
This would be a scenario that People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon would prefer to avoid at the moment, with a recent survey showing that the voters’ support rate for Mr Lee as the next presidential candidate stood at 41.3 per cent, while Han’s came to 19.3 per cent, Park explained.
It is unknown at the moment how many ruling party lawmakers would vote in favour of the motion.
However, Han reiterated the party’s stance on Dec 5 “to make efforts to block the passage of the impeachment motion against President Yoon” in the upcoming plenary meeting.
At the same time, he stressed that the president must leave the conservative ruling party.
2. If the motion fails to pass the Assembly
If the motion fails to pass the Assembly and is scrapped, the Democratic Party is likely to float a second impeachment bill, in a timely manner, Park said.
And this is likely to launch another painful process for Yoon, as the main opposition could railroad multiple bills targeting Yoon, first lady Kim Keon-hee and his aides simultaneously.
Another expert pointed out that Yoon could sit back and wait as his administration enters a “vegetative state” for the sake of the conservative bloc.
“Yoon is likely to sit back and anticipate Lee to be convicted in the ongoing court battles, but it will be difficult for his administration to enter a vegetative state for his remaining term,” Professor Lee Jun-han of Incheon National University said.
3. If Yoon resigns
Yoon’s resignation could paint the rosiest future for the ruling bloc, according to Park.
The law states that if a president resigns, a new election will take place within 60 days as well. This would not only give leverage to Lee Jae-myung, but also serve as an opportunity for the ruling conservative bloc to regain voters’ trust, the commentator said.
“If Yoon admits his fault and decides to step down, this could help the People Power Party to spin a more positive narrative around his decree of martial law. This would help the party regain the trust of the people,” Park said.
4. Constitutional reform for 4-year presidency
Opposition has been consistently proposing the idea of a constitutional amendment to shorten the presidential term limit.
The idea centres around allowing presidents to serve a second term, while shortening the length of a single term from five to four years. That means the maximum time someone could be president would be eight years.
If the reform is carried out, then Yoon’s current presidency which is set to end May 2027 would end May 2026. He would have to run for presidency in a re-election, unlike the current law, which bans them from doing so after serving their five-year term.
Five People Power Party lawmakers, who are viewed as “pro-Han” within the ruling bloc, called for such constitutional reform on Dec 5.
They said the president has “lost trust and authority among the people through the latest decree of martial law”, and proposed it as a solution for the problem, in a joint statement released during a press conference held at the Assembly on Dec 5. - The Korea Herald/ANN
