Trump 2.0 to ‘disrupt’ US-China business, analysts say, as law firm shuts Beijing office


A US corporate law firm with a more than 40-year footprint in China plans to close its Beijing office at the end of the year, accentuating a half a decade of economic strife between the world’s two largest economies.

A spokeswoman for the New York-based Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison, known for merger and acquisition cases plus other corporate law work, said it would continue its Asia business through offices in Hong Kong and Tokyo.

The company – known as Paul, Weiss for short – opened its Beijing office in 1981 to become one of the first foreign practices with an office in mainland China.

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The closure would follow at least 11 others in China over the past two years, reflecting a dearth of China business and competition from local peers, analysts and industry media reports said.

Foreign multinational clients have pulled back from China on account of trade and tech disputes that arose during US president-elect Donald Trump’s first term in the White House between 2017-21, analysts said.

During his campaign this year, Trump has since pledged tariffs of up to 60 per cent on Chinese goods after he returns to office next month.

And last week, Trump said that he would add a 10 per cent tariff on all Chinese imports – on top of duties already in place – on his first day in office.

“As the Trump 2.0 cabinet and policies take shape, the market anticipates further negative impact and disruption to global and US-China business flows,” said Nicholas Chen, managing partner with Pamir Law Group, which has offices in Shanghai and Taipei.

“The anticipated US tariffs and economic targeting of Chinese will increasingly and directly hurt US supply chains and consumers.

“This in turn hurts US service providers like law firms in China.”

Foreign clients of US law firms feel less interest than before 2017 in making direct investments in China, or taking part in Chinese initial public offerings, analysts said, impacting two possible sources of legal business.

The practices may worry that their lawyers would be detained for representing foreign clients in “squabbles” with local peers, said Andrew Collier, a China analyst with economic research firm GlobalSource Partners.

If they don’t see China as a place to make money, then what’s the point?
Joe Simone, Simone Intellectual Property Services

Among the other 11 American law firms, seven had given up offices in mainland China earlier this year after three others did the same in 2023, according to the China Business Law Journal.

Legal industry media platform Law.com said in October that the New York-based Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom would close its Shanghai office after 16 years, laying off corporate lawyers.

New York-based law-firm database Leopard Solutions reported the number of lawyers working in mainland China for the 200 largest American firms at 535 in July, down from 643 in July 2022.

It said US-headquartered firms with offices in mainland China stood at 59 in September, down from more than 100 in the 2000s.

“I don’t see a big turning of the corner in terms of investment and trade,” said Joe Simone, a partner with Simone Intellectual Property Services in Hong Kong.

“If they don’t see China as a place to make money, then what’s the point?”

He added that Chinese lawyers are taking foreign corporate clients as they grow in numbers and become more professional.

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