Trunks are seen on a tract in a forest. - Photo: Reuters file
JAKARTA: Environmentalists are warning that Indonesia's ambitious plans to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 rely too heavily on biofuels and risk a new wave of deforestation in the world's third-largest rainforest.
Heavily dependent on coal, Indonesia needs to transition away from fossil fuels and seeks to generate 75 gigawatts of electricity from renewable resources over the next 15 years, compared with 13 gigawatts today, said presidential envoy Hashim Djojohadikusumo at the U.N. summit on climate change last month.
A cornerstone of this push is the use of cleaner-burning biofuels, in which organic material is turned into liquid fuel.
Biofuels will help Indonesia cut down on expensive fuel imports, reduce greenhouse gases and increase palm oil production, which in turn will spur economic growth, the government has said. While mostly intended for the transportation sector, biofuels are also used at diesel-powered plants.
But cultivating the palm trees and sugarcane needed to create biomass at scale for the biofuel industry requires transforming vast amounts of land into plantations.
Indonesia's tropical rainforests could be at risk.
Forest Watch Indonesia estimates that deforestation could reach 4.56 million hectares in Indonesia in the next few years if the government aggressively mandates the use of biofuels across industries, including at power plants.
"New land is required to establish energy plantations to meet bioenergy needs," said Anggi Prayogo, a Forest Watch researcher. Instead, "the government should push more investments to other renewables, like solar and wind, to reduce green house gases."
The country's forests are critical to slowing climate change. The United Nations estimates Indonesia's trees store nearly 300 billion tonnes of carbon.
Cleaner fuel?
"The government must ensure that the use of palm oil for biofuels does not cause deforestation and environmental harm," said Bhima Yudhistira, executive director of Centre for Economic and Law Studies, a think tank, and noted that increasing production could require the conversion of more land.
Indonesia is already the world's biggest producer of palm oil, a versatile vegetable oil used in food, cosmetics and fuel. Last year, the country produced 47 million tonnes, with more than 10 million tonnes going to biodiesel.
Palm oil production has long been linked to deforestation in Indonesia, with 3.3 million hectares of the country's 17 million hectares of palm plantations found in forests.
The government implemented a moratorium on new plantations in 2011. But some 52,000 hectares of forests were still turned into plantations in 2022 and 2023 alone, according to Nusantara Atlas, which tracks deforestation in Indonesia.
Designed as a substitute for dirty fossil fuels, biofuels release fewer carbons directly into the atmosphere. However, when emissions arising from changes in land use are also considered, most biofuels actually emit more CO2 than petroleum, studies have shown.
Still, Indonesia has been ramping up biofuel production over the past decade and targets a 32% increase to 16 million kilolitres next year from 2023. In 2019, 660,000 kilolitres of biodiesel went to diesel power plants.
The government will require producers to make a blend of biodiesel that contains 40% palm oil and 60% diesel fuel in 2025, from 35% palm oil presently.
This will necessitate about 18 million kilolitres of crude palm oil, a 50% increase from 2023.
The country also wants to increase production of bioethanol, which is derived from sugar cane, to mix with gasoline. The government has allocated about 2 million hectares of forestland in South Papua for sugar cane plantations to reduce sugar imports.
A 2021 report by the Institute for Essential Services and Reform (IESR), a Jakarta think tank, projected potential demand for biofuels in Indonesia could reach 190 million oil tonnes equivalent by 2050.
Weaning off coal
More than 45% of Indonesia's CO2 emissions came from producing electricity in 2022, followed by industry and transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.
Coal is the main source of fuel for power plants, accounting for almost 66% of the power generation mix, followed by natural gas and hydro with 13.6% and 7.2% respectively.
The government has blamed a lack of private investment for a failure to meet its renewable energy targets since at least 2021. Indonesia has tapped only a fraction of its geothermal potential, considered the world's largest, and solar, wind and water are also underutilised, analysts said.
For example, it produced just 0.017% of its potential solar power of about 3 gigawatts last year, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a U.S. think-tank.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Biofuels will still play a part in the country's energy mix, but researchers argue that the government should encourage more replanting of unproductive plantations or slash exports to meet domestic demand first.
"Indonesia exports more than half of palm oil production," said Fabby Tumiwa, IESR's executive director.
If rainforest loss is to be slowed, "then the government must reduce its export," he said. - The Thomson Reuters Foundation (charitable arm of Thomson Reuters).
