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SOUTH-EAST ASIA (Bloomberg): It’s that time of new year, when I consult my crystal glass to glimpse where the wine world is going next. Some powerful, important trends are still ongoing, some wacky ones are thankfully disappearing, and others are brand-new.
Let’s start with one thing that will stick around for the foreseeable future: climate change.
The past 10 years have been the warmest since recordkeeping began, and 2024 was the warmest yet, the first to breach 1.5C of global warming. The World Meteorological Organization will publish the final figures this month.
So expect severe weather events (drought, heat waves, heavy rainfall, frost, hail and more) to influence everything from vineyard location and the varieties of grapes to farming and the quality of wines, as they did last year. It’s tough to predict just where climate change will take its biggest toll in 2025.
But keep in mind there’s a reason why famed German winemaker Klaus Peter Keller planted a riesling vineyard in Norway, and why reds from New York’s Finger Lakes are getting better.
Vintners are persevering with adaptation solutions. Two examples: LVMH is investing heavily in regenerative farming, and Champagne Telmont, whose own vineyards are organic, aims to have all its grower-partners certified by 2031. Each year more wineries commit to reaching net-zero carbon emissions, such as the Greek estates that joined the International Wineries for Climate Action organization last year.
The global decline in wine consumption continues, too, though it appears to be slowing in the US, according to Jon Moramarco, founder of market-research firm bw166.
Will pop culture boost demand? A late December episode of The Simpsons featured a million-dollar bottle of red Burgundy and a wine fraud scheme. Yes, it satirized wine and wine snobs, and threw in insider jokes, but it also romanticized the beverage.
Overall the high cost of living, new drinking habits, health concerns about wine and international politics will all affect what you imbibe in 2025.
Here’s what else I see in my crystal glass:
No-alcohol vino will achieve luxury status
In 2024 more top winemakers got into the no-alcohol wine business with premium, better-tasting, more sophisticated bottles, like the $120 French Bloom La Cuvée, a 2022 vintage sparkler crafted by a noted Champagne maker. There’s also the Missing Thorn lineup of alcohol-removed wines from Napa wizard Aaron Pott. Dealcoholization technology is improving, so expect many more good examples to arrive in 2025.
Bordeaux is on trend. Two châteaus on the Right Bank have already released no-alcohol labels and will add more this year; a group of winemakers in the region recently opened a facility to remove alcohol; and November saw the opening of Bordeaux’s first no-alcohol wine shop. Italy is joining in as well, with the agriculture minister signing a law in November greenlighting alcohol-free production.
Demand for these wines is increasing with reports that drinking any kind of alcohol holds health risks. Which is partly why data from a 2024 IWSR strategic study showed 61 million new consumers bought into the no-alcohol category from 2022 to 2024. No wonder the annual Wine Paris trade show in February will showcase a range of them.
Watch for my column rating the best later in the month.
You’ll be drinking even more white wines, especially chenin blanc and blends
White wines outpaced reds globally last year, and not just sauvignon blanc and pinot grigio. White malbec from Argentina and white pinot noir from Oregon are now a thing.
Other grapes are also in line to gain buzz. For 2025, I’m bullish on under-the-radar dry chenin blanc, which combines sauvignon blanc’s bright, crisp freshness and versatility with chardonnay’s complexity and ageability at a lower price.
In its home territory, the Loire Valley, plantings are predicted to eventually overtake sauvignon blanc, according to the Drinks Business, because chenin keeps its acidity and freshness even amid global warming. Top winemakers in Bourgueil, an appellation known for brilliant cabernet franc reds, voted last summer to push for a high-quality designation for their chenin blanc.
The grape is making a comeback in California, and giant Chateau Ste. Michelle in Washington state is exploring the best places there to make flagship examples.
When it comes to white blends, SipSource, a data source created by Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, notes they (along with pinot grigio) were bright spots of modest growth-and there are a host of new ones from Napa.
Prices of imported wines will go up-or maybe not
Since the US election, the scare buzzword has been "tariffs.” President-elect Donald Trump has threatened a 10% to 20% tariff on all imported goods, which would include many wines we all enjoy.
The tariffs, of course, are paid by American importers when the wines arrive at the port, with the cost passed on to distributors, retailers, restaurateurs and, in the end, wine-loving consumers. That nice little $20 Macon might not look like such a good deal at $25 or more. American wineries would pay more for imported glass bottles and corks, and many would raise prices as a result.
The US Wine Trade Alliance, an organization founded by a group of wine sellers in 2020, is gearing up for battle to prevent all this. Its research shows that every dollar spent on an imported wine generates more than $4.50 in revenue for US businesses.
Will that be enough to convince a teetotaling president that tariffs on wine are a bad idea? I’m predicting many drinkers will stock up before the inauguration.
You’ll be drinking more private-label and NDA wines
The Cipriani family hails from northeastern Italy, land of prosecco, and made its name with the historic Bellini cocktail at its famous Harry’s Bar. Now its line of wines under the Cipriani name is arriving in the US.
It’s part of the growing trend of private-label wines in the US as more supermarkets, restaurants, large retail chains, hotels and clubs form partnerships with wineries to create exclusive reds, whites, rosés and sparklers. In 2025, Aldi, Costco, Trader Joe’s and Walmart will have serious competition. Private-label alcohol sales in the US were up 12% in the 52 weeks ended mid-November 2024, which Chicago-based research firm Spins revealedat the Private Label Manufacturers Association’s annual trade show in November.
The industry downturn has left many excellent wineries with unsold vino that’s finding its way to these labels, as well as creating a growing category of NDA (nondisclosure agreement) wines. Many top wineries require NDAs to make sure their name won’t be revealed on bottles that sell for much less than what the winery would have charged. Check out the NDA wines at Napa online store Wine Access, where they have a cult following.
You’ll head to wineries and wine bars for the lifestyle, not just the wine
Rosé is now a lifestyle as well as what you drink. The 2025 Hospitality Trends Report, from AF & Co. and Carbonate, highlights the ways wineries aim to foster the same vibe for wine in general with new experiences that put casual hanging out with vino ahead of Wine Appreciation 101.
Winery club members may drop in for social hours with snacks in less formal winery and garden spaces. In Sonoma, California, Bella Winery hosted lawn games every weekend during harvest season, while Overshine’s tasting room is stocked with a deep vinyl collection and a listening station. Napa trendsetter Ashes & Diamonds offers access to pools at local resorts and pickup parties.
The chill new wine bars operate on the same idea, with no mission statements, just colorful spaces designed for spontaneity and ways to connect. Some, including Plus de Vin in Brooklyn, New York, have no printed menu; instead the wines are all lined up on shelves.
The message behind it all: Wine is convivial and fun and fits into your lifestyle.
Wine bottles will go lighter for luxury brands
Thick, superheavy bottles are on their way out as more wineries recognize how bad they are for the environment. The weight of the glass and the cost of transport account for 29% to 50% of a wine’s carbon footprint.
Until now, lighter-weight bottles have mostly been used for inexpensive wines. So it’s a big deal that the 2022 vintage of Bordeaux’s highly rated Château Pontet-Canet will arrive in a 750-milliliter standard bottle that’s 315 grams (0.69 pounds) lighter than in the past, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 39%. Argentina’s Zuccardi is putting all its top wines, including those costing $200 and more, in lighter, 570g bottles (down from 900g) starting with the 2022 vintage.
Some wineries are going further. The Catena Zapata Vista Flores malbec just premiered in a 380g bottle. Expect many more producers to follow suit in 2025.
Still, you won’t see a grand wine in Frugalpac’s Bordeaux-style "bottles” made from 94% recycled paper, even though at 83g they’re five times lighter than a standard bottle. Bonny Doon was the first US brand to use them last year-for its pink wine, Carbon Nay-and more are coming. But drink up, because the bottles can be kept for only a year to 18 months.
And, naturally, I still have many questions ...
With the rebirth of the American diner, which wines will be on those menus? Will Stella Rosa’s sweet, fruity wine coolers-especially its wildly popular pineapple & chili-have staying power? And will the Finger Lakes become my new favorite wine region to explore?
I’ll be covering all these stories and many more, including the controversy over wine and health research, in 2025.
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