Cargo ships are seen sending out containers at Guoyuan Port in Chongqing, China on January 11, 2025. China’s trade surplus grew to an unprecedented level in 2024, buoyed by a rapid expansion of exports. -- Photo: AFP
HONG KONG: Buttressed by robust export figures – particularly an all-time high for shipments of integrated circuits (ICs) and cars – China’s trade surplus in 2024 broke records, though the imminent second term of US president-elect Donald Trump and the likely onset of higher tariffs will make similar levels of trade growth a challenge in 2025.
Exports grew 5.9 per cent year on year in 2024 to US$3.58 trillion, according to customs data released on Monday, one week before Trump takes office. Imports for the same period – with a year-on-year rise of 1.1 per cent to US$2.59 trillion – were not enough to narrow the gap, leading to a record trade surplus of US$992.1 billion.
In December alone, exports grew by 10.7 per cent, higher than the 7.6 per cent increase projected by Chinese financial data provider Wind and beating the 6.7 per cent growth recorded in November.
Imports rose by 1.0 per cent from a year earlier in December, compared to the 3.9 per cent fall seen in November. This led to a trade surplus of US$104.84 billion in December, compared with US$97.44 billion in November.
“China has consolidated its status as the world’s largest merchandise exporter,” said Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the General Administration of Customs, at a Beijing press conference held in conjunction with the data release.
Exports were a significant driver of China’s economic growth in 2024. Increases in cross-border e-commerce shipments – as well as higher overseas demand for electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and solar panels – have helped the country mitigate a slowdown in domestic activity.
China Daily reported that the total value of China's foreign trade reached a record high of 43.85 trillion yuan ($5.98 trillion) in 2024, marking a 5 percent year-on-year growth, statistics from the General Administration of Customs showed.
China's exports amounted to 25.45 trillion yuan last year, reflecting a 7.1 percent year-on-year increase, while imports totaled 18.39 trillion yuan, marking a 2.3 percent rise compared to the previous year.
The administration said that China remains the world's largest goods trader. The country has become a major trading partner for over 150 countries and regions.
In terms of quality of trade, China's structure of imported and exported products has been optimized and upgraded, said Wang Lingjun, vice-minister of the GAC.
At a news conference in Beijing, Wang highlighted the encouraging momentum of China's trade growth in high-tech products, noting that exports of self-owned branded products have reached a new record and new business models, such as cross-border e-commerce, have thrived.
Imports, which were widely expected to decline, rose 1 percent, the strongest performance since July 2024, customs data showed.
The stronger-than-expected figures come as Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20 armed with a populist economic agenda that includes sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods.
Economists say Trump’s proposed tariffs would almost certainly raise prices for US consumers and cut into the profit margins of Chinese exporters.
A 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports would lower China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2.5 percentage points over the following 12 months, analysts at Swiss bank UBS have estimated.
However, China’s exports look set to remain strong in the near term as firms frontload shipments to avoid higher tariffs, said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note.
“Outbound shipments are likely to stay resilient in the near-term, supported by further gains in the global market share thanks to a weak real effective exchange rate,” Huang wrote.
Beijing has in recent months announced some of its most aggressive measures to jumpstart the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic, including policy rate cuts and loosened restrictions on property purchases, amid concerns that its 5 percent GDP growth target is slipping out of reach.
The Chinese economy has been struggling with some of the slowest growth in decades amid a host of challenges including a prolonged real estate crisis, weak consumer sentiment and a declining population.
Beijing is on Friday set to release its GDP figures for the fourth quarter and the whole of 2024.
Last month, the World Bank raised China’s 2024 growth estimate to 4.9 percent, up from its forecast of 4.8 percent in June. - Agencies
