Any downsizing of the US diplomatic mission in China could affect Washington’s understanding of the country, weaken joint projects, and hold up visa applications, according to observers.
The South China Morning Post understands that the United States will cut the number of embassy and consulate staff in mainland China and Hong Kong by up to 10 per cent.
US diplomats and local staff working on the mainland and in Hong Kong might be given notice as early as Friday, sources told the Post.
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James Downes, an international relations specialist at Hong Kong Metropolitan University, said such cuts could undermine understanding of developments on the ground in China.
“Reduced staffing may limit the US’ ability to gather nuanced insights and develop a deep understanding of China’s political, economic and social landscape,” Downes said.
This could influence the US’ perception of China and its policies and make the administration of US President Donald Trump look weak, he said.
The staff cuts align with the White House’s broader initiative to shrink the federal government’s workforce.
Xing Yue, an associate professor in international relations at Tsinghua University, said cuts would have a big impact on visa applications, with demand in China for US visas expected to stay high.
Visa processing times could become longer and more limits put on the number of applicants and the types of visas issued, she said.
Last month, the US embassy in Beijing said the Chinese government had refused to allow it to hire new local employees for over three-and-a-half years.
This would reduce its ability to process visa applications, increasing processing and wait times, it said, adding that it expected to handle only half as many applications this summer compared to the same time last year.
Xing also said the US government had had a “de-China” policy dating back to Trump’s first term, with the goal of reducing China’s influence and links across all sectors in the US.
As a result of this policy and the Covid pandemic, the number of Americans living, studying and working in China had fallen significantly, she said.
Neil Schmid, an American researcher at the Dunhuang Academy in northwest China’s Gansu province, said his daily life might not be affected directly but diplomatic staff cuts would weaken cooperation between the US and China.
“A diminished capacity to process visas for businesspeople, tourists, and students will likely create additional obstacles to bilateral exchanges,” Schmid said.
“These cuts may weaken institutional support for cooperative initiatives, which are crucial for maintaining dialogue and fostering understanding between the two nations – especially in the current geopolitical climate.”
Staff cuts are part of a wider effort by the White House to overhaul the US diplomatic corps around the world.
Last week, Trump issued an executive order directing Secretary of State Marco Rubio to revamp the foreign service to ensure “faithful and effective implementation” of his foreign policy agenda.
He has repeatedly demanded that US foreign policy be aligned with his “America first” agenda and pledged to “clean out the deep state” by firing government employees he deemed disloyal.
But Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University’s school of international studies in Beijing, said staff cuts “will change nothing” because “connection has already been decimated and cooperation largely ended – at least on major issues”.
Zhu Feng, dean of Nanjing University’s school of international studies, said lay-offs should not affect the “multilayered, multi-domain, multi-theme” exchanges between the US and China at both governmental and societal levels.
Zhu said that while the scale of embassy staff cuts would be unprecedented in China, a 10 per cent reduction was moderate compared to the larger cuts in the federal government.
An American teacher working at a high school in Beijing said he was not too concerned over the potential decline in services to American citizens.
“I’m more personally concerned with the already shrinking community of expats currently in Beijing and China,” he said.
The US State Department declined to comment on the issue. “As a general matter, we do not comment on internal personnel matters,” a spokesperson said.
Sources told the Post that the cuts would affect the embassy in Beijing and consulates in Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenyang and Wuhan, as well as the consulate in Hong Kong.
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