A supporter of South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol waves a flag during a rally near the Constitutional Court on Feb 25. - AFP
SEOUL: South Korea’s Constitutional Court held its 11th and last hearing in President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment trial on Tuesday (Feb 25), with the verdict widely expected to be announced in two weeks’ time.
The trial, which began at 2pm, lasted nearly 8½ hours as both the National Assembly and Yoon’s legal teams presented their final arguments, with Yoon allowed to deliver a final statement without any time limit.
Appearing at the court some six hours after the session began, Yoon, wearing his characteristic navy blue suit, insisted that his declaration of martial law on Dec 3, 2024, was “completely different” from past martial law decrees that “evoked negative memories of the past”.
“It was not an attempt to suppress the people by force but a desperate appeal to the people using the form of martial law,” he said, urging the judges to consider the facts of the case carefully, and calling the impeachment “a political ploy by the opposition to overthrow a democratically elected president”.
Yoon repeated his earlier accusations that the opposition-dominated National Assembly paralysed the government by blocking policy reforms, impeaching high-ranking officials and working against national security by slashing budgets and sabotaging key national defence projects.
He ended his 67-minute final statement with a promise to focus on constitutional reforms and foreign policy should he be allowed to return to office and would leave domestic matters to the prime minister.
The National Assembly, acting as prosecutors in the impeachment trial, accuses Yoon of violating the Constitution by calling for martial law, a decree which is reserved for national emergencies or times of war.
Yoon is also being accused of sending troops to block access to the National Assembly so that lawmakers could not vote to revoke the decree, and sending an arrest squad to go after political rivals such as opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.
The President is also accused of raiding the National Election Commission’s offices on suspicion of election fraud.
South Korean lawmakers, some of whom had scaled walls in an attempt to enter the National Assembly grounds, successfully voted for the repeal of martial law two hours after Yoon’s abrupt late-night declaration.
The beleaguered leader, who has been in detention since his arrest on Jan 15 on separate criminal charges of insurrection, has denied blocking access to the National Assembly and attempts to arrest his political rivals.
He admitted in an earlier hearing on Feb 4 to ordering a raid on the election offices, arguing that the raid was justified and that “nothing had happened” as an outcome of the move.
The eight Constitutional Court justices are expected to take about two weeks, or by March 11, to deliberate on their findings even though they technically have 180 days from the day that the case was filed on Dec 14, that is until mid-June, to make a final decision.
For comparison, the court took 14 days to decide to impeach former president Roh Moo-hyun in 2004 and 11 days for former president Park Geun-hye in 2017.
Based on South Korean constitutional law, an impeachment requires at least six justices out of the eight-member bench to vote in favour of it.
The impeachment trial concludes at a time when public support for Yoon’s removal is seeing a turnaround.
In contrast to a poll conducted by national broadcaster KBS at the start of 2025, which saw more than 70 per cent of 1,000 respondents supporting the impeachment, recent polls have shown falling support for it.
The results of a Gallup Korea poll of 1,000 respondents released on Feb 21 showed public support for impeachment at 60 per cent, with 34 per cent opposing.
A Realmeter poll, whose results were released on Feb 24, showed that of the 1,000 respondents surveyed, 52 per cent supported impeachment, while 45.1 per cent wanted it dismissed.
On Feb 22, the weekend before the final trial hearing, protests for and against the impeachment were held across South Korea.
In Seoul, an estimated 30,000 Yoon supporters rallied in the Gwanghwamun area, while metres away, outside the Gyeongbukgung Palace and the Constitutional Court, some 20,000 protesters rallied for the impeachment to be upheld.
Local media reported that pro-Yoon rallies were also held in other cities such as Daejeon, Daegu and Incheon.
On Feb 25, about 5,000 Yoon supporters gathered outside the court to call for the impeachment to be invalidated.
Analysts told The Straits Times that the public opinion needle has shifted in favour of Yoon as the trial winds down and the prospect of a new, unfavourable leader from a snap presidential election – that must be called within 60 days if the impeachment is upheld – looms large.
“To outside observers, it may seem as though the trial is solely about Yoon and his fate. However, the real issue is what comes after his removal,” Dr Lee Seong-hyon, a senior fellow at George H. W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations in the US, told ST.
Among the conservatives and moderates, the realisation is sinking in that the opposition’s liberal leader, Lee, who lost narrowly to Yoon in the 2022 election, stands a good chance of being the country’s next leader of the country.
Kyung Hee University political scientist Ahn Byong-jin said: “Initially, it was a matter of impeaching Yoon. But the political terrain has since changed. It is now a matter of who is going to win the presidential election. People are beginning to think, ‘Oh my goodness, I don’t like him (Lee). I don’t want him to be president,’ so they are looking for a way to veto this.”
Lee, a controversial figure who has been indicted on bribery and other criminal charges, is currently appealing against a conviction for election law violation, and may be disqualified if the conviction is upheld by the Supreme Court in late June.
“For swing voters, it is not a matter of ideology, but a matter of who they can trust as the next leader,” said Professor Ahn.
The divide between the conservative and liberal camps is also playing a part in swaying public opinion, with ultra-conservatives seeding conspiracy theories that the April 2024 elections were rigged and that there was Chinese interference in South Korean politics.
Chinese Ambassador to South Korea Dai Bing rejected the allegations in a post on X on Feb 10, objecting to the “unwarranted linkage” of China to South Korea’s domestic troubles “for no reason”.
The political polarisation is likely part of Yoon’s gambit when he declared martial law, said Prof Ahn.
“He was likely thinking that even though martial law might be too much at first for people to take, over time, people will come round to accept his argument because there is so much political polarisation, (and) they will come to see Lee as the villain.”
It did not help the opposition that they overplayed their hand following the National Assembly’s move to impeach Yoon on Dec 14.
The swift impeachment of then Prime Minister Han Duck-soo on Dec 27 was likely the tipping point that made swing voters change their minds, said Prof Ahn.
“Swing voters prefer stability. So while the opposition Democratic Party (DP) had grounds to impeach Han, politically, it was not a shrewd move at all,” he said.
Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok has since stepped up as acting president, but the leadership vacuum has nevertheless taken its toll.
Attempts to engage the Trump 2.0 administration in Washington have so far come to nought, which could be ominous as South Korea gears up to host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in November.
Seoul’s economic forecast has taken a hit as well, with the Bank of Korea slashing interest rates by 25 basis points and lowering its gross domestic product growth forecast from 1.9 per cent to 1.5 per cent on Feb 25.
Dr Lee said that public sentiment likely shifted as fatigue set in over the extended political uncertainty.
“The country has endured martial law, impeachment votes and mass protests, leaving many citizens longing for normalcy. This exhaustion has contributed to the decline in impeachment support,” he said.
But despite the slide in support for impeachment, both Prof Ahn and Dr Lee do not believe that the outcome will change.
Dr Lee said: “Ultimately, South Korea’s impeachment trial underscores the fragility of democratic norms in deeply polarised societies. While Yoon’s defiance has energised his base, historical precedent and the weight of legal evidence suggest that his presidency will end in removal.”
As for Prof Ahn, the impeachment is a certainty.
“The political pundits in this country, we are not even caring about the final verdict. We are already looking at the presidential election that will come next.” - The Straits Times/ANN
