KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama): The ringgit is projected to trade between 4.41 and 4.42 against the US dollar from Monday (April 7), according to an analyst.
Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said the tremor from the United States tariff shock would continue to reverberate, leading traders and investors to adopt a defensive stance.
"I sense that market participants will be searching for more clues on whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) would ease the monetary policy beyond half a point cut as indicated in their March projection.
"Against such a backdrop, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be closely scrutinised on Thursday. At the current juncture, the current support and resistant level lies at 4.3634 and 4.4463 for the ringgit-US dollar,” he told Bernama.
Meanwhile, SPI Asset Management managing director Stephen Innes expects the ringgit to move around 4.42 to 4.45 versus the greenback next week.
He said China’s deflation pressures would take centre-stage, with CPI and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases due.
"If the numbers confirm sluggish domestic demand, that could sour regional risk sentiment and spill over to the ringgit.
"I would also keep a close eye on the Bank of Japan, they are expected to hold, but if they sound more dovish on the global outlook, it could have ripple effects across Asia. Markets would read that as a potential green light for regional interest rate cuts, which would weigh on local currencies,” said Innes.
On the ringgit, he said if Malaysia could extract some trade concessions, that could stabilise sentiment quickly.
"But make no mistake, the elephant in the room is China. What the People’s Bank of China does with the yuan will be the regional anchor, and if they start nudging it weaker, the ringgit and others will likely take their cue from there,” he added.
For the holiday-shortened week, the local currency ended the week marginally lower at 4.4335/4400 against the greenback, lower than the 4.4330/4355 recorded in the previous week.
Meanwhile, the ringgit was traded lower against other major currencies at yesterday’s close.
It slid against the Japanese yen to 3.0294/0340 from 2.9438/9456 last week, decreased vis-a-vis the euro to 4.8706/8778 from 4.7761/7788, and fell against the British pound to 5.7591/7676 from 5.7407/7440.
The local note was traded mixed against Asean currencies.
It depreciated versus the Singapore dollar to 3.3153/3204 from 3.3040/3061 and fell against the Philippine peso to 7.80/7.782 from 7.72/7.73.
The ringgit rose against the Thai baht to 12.9589/9847 from 13.0390/0533 and was better vis-a-vis the Indonesian rupiah to 266.2/266.7 from 267.7/267.9 last week.
Markets were closed on Monday and Tuesday in conjunction with the Hari Raya Aidilfitri holidays. - Bernama
