MALAYSIA’S merchandise trade in terms of exports and imports has entered a soft patch in tandem with weakening global demand.
The severity of that slowdown is now being debated, with some expecting it to possibly get worse and long-drawn, while others view it to be a probable mild downturn.
Recessions are expected in the United States, European Union (EU) and Britain next year.
That is significant for Malaysia; demand from G3 partners – the United States, Japan and the eurozone – accounted for 24% of Malaysia’s exports and investments from G3 totalling RM27bil or 65% of net foreign direct investment in the first half of 2022.
A marked effect on Malaysia’s trade and investment flows is anticipated, said United Overseas Bank (M) senior economist Julia Goh.
The drop in export growth (October 15% versus September 30.1%) is in line with that in the purchasing managers index (November 47.9 versus October 48.7).
This signals a slowdown in business conditions, especially in the semiconductor downcycle.
The prolonged energy crisis in the EU poses a threat to the export market; challenges stemming from the external front will be a primary risk to the economic outlook in 2023.
Real gross domestic product growth of 4.5% is expected for Malaysia in 2023, but we are on the lookout for signs that will stifle growth amid a challenging external environment, said Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Firdaos Rosli.
The boom and bust cycles in electronics exports, which form a sizeable portion of the country’s exports, are now being accentuated by the United States’ attempt at onshoring the business again after decades of offshoring operations.
Much of Malaysia’s role was intermediating between China and the United States; this business is being disrupted and the full impact may be very negative for Malaysia, said former Inter-Pacific Securities head of research Pong Teng Siew.
The slowdown may be gradual and long-drawn.
A deep downturn, similar to the recessions that were induced by the shocks from the Covid-19 pandemic or the 2007/08 global financial crisis, may not occur.
The current slowdown, caused by aggressive monetary policy tightening, may gradually dampen growth, rather than cause an immediate contraction of the economy.
However, the slowdown may potentially be long-drawn, until the current imbalances diminish and the global economy recalibrates itself.
We could be in for a sluggish and lacklustre global economic environment, which will directly soften external demand for the Malaysian economy and dampen its export performance, said RAM Rating Services head, economic research, and senior economist, Woon Khai Jhek.
Given that electronic and electrical goods account for about 40% of Malaysia’s gross exports and about 25% of overall manufacturing output, the performance of the sector will have considerable effect on the overall economy.
However, some expect the global slowdown to be mild, and Malaysia’s exports in 2023 may not necessarily contract on an annual basis.
This is given the assumption that the global slowdown will be mild and underlying strength in demand will still be present, said CGS-CIMB Securities Research.
The International Monetary Fund had slashed its growth forecast for 2023 to 2.7%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than its estimate in July.
The World Bank had also cut global growth by 0.2% to 3%, in its Global Economic Prospects report in June.
Malaysia’s broad and diversified domestic economy is expected to help mitigate the impact of weaker exports, as domestic demand in the country has continued to show a steady recovery.
Strong growth this year, together with its intact fundamentals and continued improvement in the unemployment rate, will also help to buffer against weaker external demand.
The country has to continue pursuing pro-growth and investment friendly policies.
Key catalysts that are supportive of the country’s export growth in the near term include the:
> Ratification of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership;
> Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP); and
> Semiconductor supply chain resilience-linked memorandum of co-operation between the United States and Malaysia.
Exporters can get access to grow the CPTPP market – Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam – as a whole while new export markets include Peru, Canada and Mexico.
Economic benefits of these trade blocs include tariff elimination, trade facilitation and other obligations in economic liberalisation.
In the electronic and electrical sector, Malaysia can target the assembly/test activities for product output intended for use in the region, rather than in the United States.
In this way, we can shield ourselves from the downside risk of the United States “forcing” electronic firms to re-onshore production back to the United States.
The etching of chips, for instance, may not take off in a big way locally, as it lacks a support industry ecosystem, but a start can be made somewhere and lead to a proliferation where nothing much existed before.
Malaysia has been stuck at the lower value added test/assembly segment for too long, and must move up the value chain.
As the outlook for exports becomes more challenging, efforts must be made to look for markets, opportunities and benefits elsewhere.
Yap Leng Kuen is a former StarBiz editor. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
