Analysts say the slower TIV projection is premised on the absence of the sales and service tax (SST) exemption, as well as slower economic growth that could weigh on car sales and earnings next year.
PETALING JAYA: The automotive sector’s total industry volume (TIV) is expected to soften in 2023 on lower sales expectation, after a likely record-breaking TIV performance pegged at 630,000-700,000 units in 2022, say analysts.
They opined the slower TIV projection is premised on the absence of the sales and service tax (SST) exemption, as well as slower economic growth that could weigh on car sales and earnings next year.
In its latest report, RHB Research expects TIV in 2023 to ease by 14% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 600,000 units.
“Our forecast has already accounted for the likely strong first quarter 2023 (1Q23), as companies rush to deliver the SST-exempt orders before end-March 2023,” it added.
The research house, which has a cautious outlook on the automotive sector, also said: “We think beyond the strong deliveries in the near term, concerns of a slower 2023 could continue to weigh on the sector’s sentiment.”
For 2022, the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) projects the industry’s TIV at 630,000 units, and 636,000 units for 2023.
According to the MAA, the TIV for November rose 6% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 7% y-o-y at 64,404 units, bringing year-to-date vehicle registrations to 642,000.
“As we expect strong vehicle sales in December, we think 2022 TIV will likely reach our 700,000 units forecast, outstripping the TIV record of 667,000 units in 2015,” noted RHB Research.
The research house said it wasn’t surprised by another strong month performance (in November) TIV, mainly lifted by Perodua (plus 11%) and Toyota and Lexus (plus 13%).
“Monthly TIV remains robust, driven by the months-long order backlog since June 2022 and easing supply chain conditions,” it pointed out.
With greater supply visibility, RHB Research said auto executives have expressed their confidence in fulfilling the sales tax-exempt orders before end-March next year.
Year-to-date, Perodua has sold 251,000 units, and is on track to exceed its 265,900 units target for 2022.
However, Proton’s 12% m-o-m decline weighed on the sector TIV, as its production also fell 12% m-o-m, back to a normalised level.
RHB Research’s top picks in the sector are Bermaz Auto Bhd
(BAuto) with a target price (TP) of RM2.55 and Sime Darby Bhd at a TP of RM2.80 respectively.
Kenanga Research, which has an “overweight” call on the sector, said the latest MAA’s November TIV figures came in within its expectations.
The research house targets the industry’s TIV at 680,000 units for 2022 and 690,000 in 2023 respectively.
“We believe the odds are in favour of the MAA raising its number along the way,” it added.
In 2023, Kenanga Research expects vehicle sales to be underpinned by the continued delivery of order backlogs to the tune of 350,000 units as at end-October 2022, which was unchanged compared to three months ago.
This indicates that deliveries had been replenished with strong new bookings, especially for attractive new models even in the absence of the SST exemption.
Additionally, vehicle sales will be supported by launches of new electric vehicles (EVs) that will enjoy the SST exemption and other incentives for EVs up to 2023 for completely built up and 2025 for completely knocked down.
Kenanga Research also believes vehicle sales will remain robust in 2023 supported by the reopening of the economy, financial assistance to the low-income group and subsidies on fuels, electricity and selected food items to keep the cost of living in check, a relatively stable job market and healthy household balance sheets of the M40 group.
Its sector top picks are MBM Resources Bhd with a TP of RM4.45 and BAuto with a TP of RM2.65 respectively.
Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research, meanwhile, is maintaining a “neutral” call on the sector as it expects TIV to slowdown in 2023.
This is despite the expected strong TIV recovery until year end, backed by the high order backlogs.
“We advise investors to accumulate MBM with a TP of RM5 and DRB-Hicom Bhd with a TP of RM2.24, as we expect the national original equipment manufacturers to triumph over the longer term with potential growth from new export markets.
“We also like BAuto at a TP of RM2.35 for its strong balance sheet with high order backlogs lasting for over six months,” added the research house.
