Growth rate: Pedestrians pass by the Bank Negara building. The central bank is set to release the 1Q GDP figures soon.
GDP in focus
THE first-quarter (1Q) gross domestic product (GDP) figures to be released by Bank Negara on Friday will be the main highlight this week.
Other data releases in the week include the industrial production index or IPI, manufacturing sales, retail sales and unemployment statistics.
Given the positive tone in the Monetary Policy Committee’s statement for the Malaysian economy, CGS-CIMB Research anticipates the 1Q GDP growth could surprise on the upside.
OCBC Bank expects the 1Q GDP growth to remain strong at 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 7% in 4Q of 2022.
The GDP annual growth rate in Malaysia is expected to be 5.1% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
The GDP expanded 8.7% in 2022.
China trade figures
CHINA is expected to release a slew of economic data this week.
These include trade, loan growth, inflation and the production price index (PPI) figures.
ING expects exports from China to slow due to weak external demand.
However, it noted China’s electric vehicle exports could see an increase on a yearly basis.
This is as Chinese car manufacturers are looking to exports as their key strategy.
This is on top of organic growth in the huge domestic market.
The research house expects China’s loans to grow mildly starting from April as Chinese banks usually book loans in 1Q.
Slower loan growth in April should not be interpreted as low loan demand.
This is because most of the loans for the year have already been booked.
Meanwhile, it said China should continue to show modest inflation, and weaker manufacturing activities should continue to put deflationary pressures on the PPI.
The Philippines trend
THE Philippines’ GDP is expected to expand 6.5% y-o-y in 1Q23, down from 7.2% in 4Q22, according to ING.
Bloomberg estimates a 6.2% growth y-o-y.
ING said growth would be supported by household consumption, although it noted a slowing trend as elevated inflation sapped some purchasing power.
Meanwhile, capital formation will likely be subdued, given moderating bank lending after Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas or BSP sustained rapid-fire rate hikes.
ING said GDP growth should continue to decelerate in the coming quarters, as still high inflation and the fallout from central bank rate hikes take hold.
