The survey noted that only 13.4% of respondents expected an increase this year, down 23.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. — AFP
BEIJING: The Hong Kong Trade and Development Council (HKTDC) slashed its full-year forecast for the city’s export growth to between zero and 2%, down from its earlier estimate of 5%, as heightened world trade frictions sour markets and exporters wrestle with worries about a global slowdown.
The HKTDC’s downgrade followed its flagship export index, showing that Hong Kong exporters have regained some business confidence – a consequence of the lifting of anti-pandemic measures and the resumption of regular business activities – although their outlook is still pessimistic overall.
The index was created by the HKTDC to gauge local traders’ outlook on near-term export performance.
As many as 500 Hong Kong exporters from six major industry sectors, including clothing, electronics, jewellery, machinery, timepieces and toys, were interviewed for the index survey.
The survey noted that only 13.4% of respondents expected an increase this year, down 23.1 percentage points from the previous quarter.
In the second quarter, the confidence headline figure surged by 8.8 points to 47.8, a two-year high.
Nevertheless, the reading of less than 50 still suggests an overall pessimistic outlook, with concern stemming principally from the challenging external backdrop.
In terms of total exports, Hong Kong’s performance has been weaker than anticipated in 2023 to date.
For the first four months of 2023, total exports decreased by 16.5% over the same period last year due to the slow recovery in land cargo capacity, the electronics downcycle and semiconductor-related trade frictions, data from the Census and Statistics Department showed.
According to the HKTDC’s survey, nearly two-thirds of respondents see “the risk of an economic recession” or “weakened demand in their overseas markets” as their primary concern. — China Daily/ANN
