KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the overnight policy rate (OPR) unchanged at 3% during its meeting on Thursday.
The move met market expectations as a Reuters poll of economists showed all 27 economists had projected the central bank would leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged.
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“At the current OPR level, the monetary policy stance remains supportive of the economy and is consistent with the current assessment of the inflation and growth prospects,” the central bank said in a statement.
“The MPC remains vigilant to ongoing developments to inform the assessment on the outlook of domestic inflation and growth. The MPC will ensure that the monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable economic growth amid price stability,” it added.
Bank Negara said the global economy continues to expand, driven by resilient domestic demand supported by strong labour market conditions.
Global growth, however, remains weighed down by persistently elevated core inflation and higher interest rates. Global trade is also affected by rotation of spending from goods to services, and the ongoing electrical and electronics (E&E) downcycle. The slower-than-expected growth in China also weighed on the global economy.
Globally, headline inflation continued to moderate. While core inflation in advanced economies is slowing down, it remains above historical averages.
“For most central banks, the monetary policy stance is likely to remain tight. The growth outlook remains subject to downside risks, mainly from a slower momentum in major economies, higher-than-anticipated inflation outturns, an escalation of geopolitical tensions, and a sharp tightening in financial market conditions,” Bank Negara said.
In the second quarter of the year, growth of the Malaysian economy was affected by slower external demand and a decline in commodity production.
“Moving forward, growth will continue to be driven by resilient domestic expenditure amid the challenging external environment. Continued employment and wage growth, particularly in the domestic-oriented sectors, remain supportive of household spending,” it said.
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Meanwhile, tourist arrivals and spending are expected to improve further. Investment activity would be supported by continued progress of multi-year infrastructure projects, and implementation of catalytic initiatives under the recently announced national master plans.
Domestic financial conditions also remain conducive to financial intermediation amid sustained credit growth.
Bank Negara said these factors will continue to underpin the growth momentum going into 2024.
“While the growth outlook is subject to downside risks stemming from weaker-than-expected external demand and larger and protracted declines in commodity production, upside risks mainly emanate from stronger-than-expected tourism activity, a stronger recovery from the E&E downcycle, and faster implementation of existing and new projects,” it said.
Bank Negara expects headline and core inflation to moderate in the second half of 2023, partly reflecting the higher base from the second half of 2022 and continued easing momentum of price increases.
“Risks to the inflation outlook remain highly subject to changes to domestic policy on subsidies and price controls, global commodity prices and financial market developments, as well as the degree of persistence in core inflation,” it said.
