The IMF’s projection for Vietnam’s real GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 were 5.8% and 6.9%, respectively. — VNA/VNS
HANOI: Vietnam’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow at 4.7% this year, according to the October 2023 report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on the Asia-Pacific region.
The IMF’s projection for Vietnam’s real GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 were 5.8% and 6.9%, respectively.
The South-East Asian economy’s performance this year has put it in a middle-of-the-pack position, behind major economies such as China (5%) and India (6.3%) but ahead of peers such as Malaysia (4%) and Thailand (2.7%).
According to the IMF, Vietnam’s effort to put inflation under control has been a success, as the country’s headline inflation has been only slightly higher than before the pandemic period, without clear troughs or peaks.
This is especially in comparison to rising inflation in more advanced economies in the region such as Australia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Singapore.
Overall, inflation outcomes have been on average lower than in other regions, thanks to South-East Asian central banks’ easing and the tightening of monetary policies.
Inflation has also been higher in most of the region’s advanced economies than in emerging markets.
The report said economic activity in the Asia-Pacific remains on track to contribute around two-thirds of global growth in 2023.
This is despite a challenging environment shaped by a global demand rotation from goods to services and synchronised monetary tightening.
Upside growth surprises in the first half of 2023 have been driven by robust domestic demand, reflecting in part a draw-down in excess savings, and by China’s reopening after the pandemic.
“However, growth momentum is slowing, with China’s reopening losing steam and lacklustre investment, partly responding to weaker external demand.
“Headline inflation has declined from post-pandemic peaks as global commodity prices have receded,” said the report.
Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected recovery in China could trigger negative spillovers to its trading partners.
Abrupt financial tightening in the United States or within the region would inhibit growth, especially in highly leveraged economies and sectors.
The recent slowdown in China’s property sector will weigh on demand throughout the region with medium-term growth being projected to be moderate. — Viet Nam News/ANN
