GOLDMAN Sachs said it expects the Bank of England (BoE) to deliver its first rate cut in June compared to a previous expectation of in August after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 6-3 to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%.
"We expect the MPC to cut at a 25 basis points per meeting pace until policy rates reach 3.0% in June 2025," Goldman Sachs economists said in a note dated Dec 14.
The central bank had largely shrugged off data this week showing a slowdown in wage growth and a 0.3% fall in gross domestic product in October - which raises the prospect of a recession in the run-up to a national election expected for 2024.
Economists led by Sven Jari Stehn said that negative surprises to the BoE's inflation forecasts will eventually lead the MPC to shift in a more dovish direction.
Recent labor market data has helped that view.
Goldman Sachs says its expectations for headline inflation to fall to 2.3% in the second quarter of 2024, compared to the BoE's modal forecast of 3.6%, implies a faster deceleration in inflationary pressures in the coming quarters.
The brokerage also sees a 25% probability that the MPC will reduce rates by 25 bps at the May meeting and accelerate the pace to 50 bps cuts through the second half of 2024.
"As well as a risk of earlier cuts, we also see a 30% chance that Bank Rate remains at 5.25% through 2024, if progress on disinflation is more gradual that we forecast," Goldman Sachs said. - Reuters
