TA Research said Malaysia’s exports would likely register a growth of 4.8% in 2024, after an expected slump of 7.6% in 2023.
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia’s external trade performance will likely recover on a gradual basis in 2024, following an expected contraction for the full year of 2023.
This is in tandem with the expected recovery of China’s economy, as well as the anticipated recovery in global trade in general.
According to TA Research, Malaysia’s exports would likely register a growth of 4.8% in 2024, after an expected slump of 7.6% for 2023.
The country’s imports, on the other hand, would likely grow 4.7% next year after an anticipated decline of 8.4% this year, the brokerage estimated.
“While the trade for the current year is confirmed to register a contraction, we foresee a gradual recovery in external trade during the upcoming year,” it wrote in a report yesterday.
“Our optimism is rooted in the anticipated resurgence of China’s economy, potentially spurred by forthcoming cuts in interest rates and increased fiscal stimulus.
“The implementation of the National Industrial Master Plan, with a strategic focus on high-growth and high-value sectors, is poised to contribute significantly to the revival of exports,” it explained.
TA Research said the positive outlook extended to the global semiconductor market, pointing to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics’ global semiconductor sales forecast of a 13.1% growth in 2024, as compared to an expected 9.4% decline in 2023.
“This promising trajectory underscores the pivotal role of technological advancements in driving international trade, emphasising the critical connection between innovation and economic recovery,” it said.
Meanwhile, Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research noted that the World Trade Organisation Goods Trade Barometer rose to 100.7 in its November release from 99.1 in August.
This, it said, suggested an upcoming recovery in merchandise trade activity in the near term after its recent slump, and the biggest gains were seen in the indices for automobile production and electronic components.
“In line with the global outlook, Malaysia’s trade performance is also expected to gradually recover in the coming months, benefitting from its diversified export structure,” HLIB Research said.
Data from the Statistics Department on Tuesday showed Malaysia’s exports in November 2023 declined 5.9%, worse than the market’s median estimate of a 5.2% contraction as polled by Bloomberg.The fall in exports was attributable mainly to lower demand for electrical and electronics products, amid modest global growth and vulnerability in external demand for goods from Malaysia.
On the contrary, imports rebounded by 1.7%, after eight consecutive months of decline. Total trade shrank 2.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM231.8bil.
For the January-November 2023 period, Malaysia’s total trade fell 7.5% y-o-y to RM2.4 trillion, in line with the decline in exports (down 7.8% y-o-y) as well as imports (down 7.1% y-o-y).
The country’s trade surplus for the 11 months decreased 11.3% y-o-y to RM202.5bil.
