For the full 2024, Maybank IB expects visitor arrivals to be about 10% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
PETALING JAYA: Malaysia is expected to see a faster recovery in tourists arrivals in 2024 as compared to some neighbouring countries, according to Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) Research.
In a report on the Asean tourism sector, the research firm forecasts total visitor arrivals to Asean-6 (comprising Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia) to grow by about 27% in 2024, recovering to 98% of pre-pandemic levels by year-end.
“Recovery will be faster in Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore,” it said in the report.
However, for the full 2024, Maybank IB expects visitor arrivals to be about 10% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels.
Visitor arrivals in 2024 will likely fall short of 2019 levels in all Asean-6 countries. Non-China markets will help cushion the sluggish China tourist rebound but cannot fully offset it, the research firm added.
Notably, it said government targets for the Philippines and Vietnam maybe “too optimistic”.
“Asean’s tourism recovery in 2023 was a story of two halves. The recovery lost steam in the second half of 2023, largely because China’s ‘revenge travel’ after the reopening turned out to be shorter and smaller in magnitude.
“Tourist arrivals to Asean grew 388% in the first six months of 2023 and slowed to 67% in the July-November period.
“At 77% of pre-pandemic levels in November 2023, total visitor arrivals to Asean were modestly higher than at the start of 2023 (61% in January),” it noted.
Relative to pre-pandemic levels, Maybank IB said the tourism recovery is marginally stronger in Malaysia (72%) and Singapore (71%) and slowest in the Philippines (66%).
“Total visitor arrivals met government targets in Thailand and Vietnam and will likely exceed targets in Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia,” it said.
Where hotels and tourism receipts are concerned, it said hotel occupancy rates have risen more modestly relative to the tourist arrivals as more hotel rooms came back on stream.
“Hotel occupancy rates have climbed to relatively high levels and are close to pre-pandemic rates in Thailand and Singapore. Longer stays may be one reason for the higher hotel occupancy rates in Thailand.
“Tourism revenue has been mixed and uneven, with visitors spending more than before in Singapore and Malaysia but less in Thailand.”
Citing data from Malaysia’s tourism authority, it said visitor arrivals to Malaysia recovered to 89% of pre-pandemic levels by September 2023, with more Singaporeans flocking to Malaysia in light of the favourable exchange rates.
Visa waivers for China and India will also help boost Malaysia’s tourism sector, Maybank IB said.
According to the research firm, visitors to Malaysia spent an average of RM3,406 per trip in the first nine months of 2023 (9M23), which was 3.2% higher than in full-year 2019.
Revenue from inbound visitors, meanwhile, jumped three-fold in 9M23 from the same period a year ago, hitting 75% of pre-pandemic levels.
Maybank IB expects outbound China tourists to return to pre-pandemic levels only in late 2025.
It noted that China tourist flows to Asean have recovered to only 38% of pre-pandemic levels in November 2023, as “revenge travel” remained hotter at home than abroad.
On the other hand, tourists from India now account for larger market shares in Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand, while South Koreans have overtaken China as the No. 1 market in Vietnam and remains top in the Philippines.
Elsewhere, Indonesians have overtaken China as the No. 1 market in Singapore while Malaysians have leapfrogged China tourists in Thailand.
Meanwhile, Maybank IB said airlines in the region are planning to expand their fleets and add more routes in 2024.
Thai Airways plans to increase its fleet to 75 aircraft in 2024 and 98 to 100 aircraft by 2025 as compared to 69 in 2023. Prior to the pandemic, the carrier had operated a fleet of 103 planes.
Indian airline IndiGo announced in December last year that it would increase India-Thailand weekly flights by 25%, including additional flights on the Mumbai-Phuket route and resumption of flights between Bengaluru and Phuket.
Across the causeway, Singapore Airlines announced it will be augmenting capacity to Australia from March 2024 and increasing flights to China, India, Japan and Vietnam, on top of boosting connectivity to the United States and Europe.
As for Malaysia’s AirAsia, it will ramp up services between China-Malaysia and India-Malaysia, totalling 230 weekly flights from the first quarter of 2024.
Malaysia expects 2024 tourist arrivals to top the 26.1 million visitors in 2019, but it has not provided a specific target.
