Industrial production index
THE industrial production index (IPI) for June will be published this week along with the monthly manufacturing statistics and retail sales.
According to analysts, the IPI is expected to show a contraction, suggesting a moderate slowdown in manufacturing activity.
The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Malaysia manufacturing purchasing managers’ index dipped slightly to 49.7 in July from 49.9 in June.
Bloomberg estimates IPI to expand 2.6% to 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 2.4% in May.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to announce its international reserves as at July 31 on Wednesday.
GDP reports
INDONESIA and the Philippines are reporting their gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2024 (2Q24) this week.
Bloomberg estimates Indonesia‘s 2Q24 GDP to grow 4.97% y-o-y while the Philippines’ 2Q24 GDP is expected to expand 6.1% y-o-y.
According to ING, the Philippines’ 2Q34 GDP will likely show growth running close to 7% y-o-y, though this will be mainly a base-effect driven result, and quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth will likely come in a little below 1%, lower than the 1.3% growth recorded for the 1Q24.
Meanwhile, Reuters conducted a poll of 24 economists, predicting that 2Q24 growth in Indonesia is likely to slow slightly to 5%.
Trade data
CHINA and Taiwan are set to release their trade and inflation findings this week.
ING said July’s data is likely to see China’s export growth remain in high single-digit or low double-digit growth amid a supportive base effect, and there is some possibility of some front loading of exports ahead of tariffs.
China’s inflation is likely to trend a little higher in July with ING expecting consumer price index inflation to move higher to around 0.6% y-o-y.
Bloomberg estimates China’s exports to grow 10% y-o-y from 8.6% y-o-y in June, imports at 3% y-o-y from minus 2.3% in June while trade surplus is likely at US$101.0bil from US$99.05bil in June.
Meanwhile, ING said Taiwan’s trade growth is expected to moderate following the exceptionally strong June figures, with exports and imports growing by 23.5% and 33.9% y-o-y, respectively.
It added, exports may cool to high single-digit or low double-digit growth while imports are likely to show stronger growth in the high teens.
