IPI data
THE industrial production index (IPI), retail sales and unemployment data for August are among the economic data due this week.
Bloomberg estimates IPI to grow 6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 5.3% y-o-y in July.
According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations, IPI is likely to be 3.9% by the end of this quarter.
In the long-term, it said Malaysia’s IPI is projected to trend around 3.2% in 2025.
It also expects the unemployment rate to be at 3.4% by the end of this quarter.
Monetary policy decisions
THE Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Bank of Korea (BoK) are scheduled to announce their monetary policy this week.
ING expects a 25 basis points (bps) cut, aligning with the market consensus.
According to a Bloomberg poll, six out of seven analysts expect the policy rate to be cut by 25 bps to 3.25% for this month, while one analyst anticipates the BoK will remain on hold.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research anticipates that the RBI will remain on hold but expects a 25 bps rate cut in the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with the possibility that the start of the easing cycle could be postponed until the first quarter of 2025.
A Bloomberg poll showed that 11 of the 13 analysts polled expect the RBNZ to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 bps to 4.75% for October, while the remaining two expect a smaller 25 bps cut.
UOB expects the RBNZ to continue cutting the OCR steadily by 25 bps in every meeting for the rest of this year to bring the OCR to 4.75% by year-end.
Inflation report
SEVERAL economies including Thailand, Taiwan and China will release their consumer price index data this week.
ING is looking for inflation to cool for a second consecutive month to around 2% y-o-y in September, down from 2.4% y-o-y in August.
It expects inflation to stay close to the 2.0% level in the fourth quarter.
Bloomberg estimates Thailand’s inflation to expand 0.8% y-o-y while UOB estimates a growth of 0.91% y-o-y from 0.35% in August.
