GDP data
THE Statistics Department is expected to release the advance real gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the third quarter (3Q24) along with the consumer price index (CPI) for September this week.
Bloomberg estimates Malaysia’s GDP to grow 5.1% year-on-year (y-o-y).
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research projects real GDP to expand by 5.7% y-o-y in 3Q24 from 5.9% in 2Q24 primarily supported by manufacturing, services and construction activities amid year-ago low base effects.
UOB added sustained investments and ongoing export recovery will also provide a fillip to the overall GDP growth in the quarter.
Meanwhile, the inflation rate in Malaysia is expected to be 1.90% by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations.
Singapore inflation
HEADLINE inflation in September should fall further in Singapore as lower gasoline prices weigh on the index, according to ING.
ING expects the CPI index will increase by only 0.2% month-on-month (m-o-m), leading to the first inflation reading below 2% since March 2021.
However, the core inflation rate is likely to be stickier.
Bloomberg and UOB estimate inflation to grow 1.8% y-o-y from 2.2% in August.
China LPR and results galore
A Bloomberg survey reveals that a slight majority of analysts (five out of 10) predict a 20-basis-point cut to the five-year loan prime rate (LPR), bringing it to 3.65%.
Meanwhile, two analysts expect a smaller cut of 10 basis points (bps) to 3.75%, and another two anticipate a larger cut of 25 bps to 3.60%.
For the one-year LPR, of the 11 analysts surveyed, six expect a 20-basis-point cut to 3.15%.
Three analysts predict a smaller cut of 10 basis points to 3.25%, and one analyst forecasts a 15-basis-point cut to 3.20%. One analyst believes there will be no change to both the five-year and one-year LPR in October.
On Thursday, the reading on the purchasing managers’ index for Japan, Australia and India will be released.
On Friday, Japan will report the Tokyo CPI for October, a key indicator that will capture corporate price changes.
South Korea will release third-quarter growth figures on Wednesday that may show the economy has slowed a bit.
