Assessing impact: Starmer holds a press conference at Downing Street in London. Trump’s victory is dominating conversations in Starmer’s government, and inevitably in the British media. — AFP
LONDON: When Donald Trump called Keir Starmer hours after winning the United States election, he did so via the UK prime minister’s mobile phone rather than the secure landline Downing Street typically uses for such conversations.
The step outside of protocol is something Starmer may have to get used to, according to UK officials who noted that security concerns over Trump’s tendency to call out of the blue during his first term – and who might be listening in – were unlikely to be heeded in his second presidency.
Whether Starmer will even stay on Trump’s speed-dial is another matter.
The prime minister has already endured a rocky introduction to power, with a row over political donations, slumping opinion polls and an economic slowdown taking the shine off his Labour party’s landslide election win in July.
But his troubles at home look simple compared to the challenges he faces abroad – Russia’s war in Ukraine, Middle East conflict, climate change, an attempted diplomatic thaw with China and a reset of Britain’s relations with the European Union (EU), are all on his mind.
Trump in the White House looms over everything. Geopolitics is not what Starmer is known for.
His election campaign was built around the promise of domestic recovery.
Yet in just over four months in office, by the end of the Group of 20 (G20) he’ll have spent nearly a month abroad trying to buttress Britain’s place in a dramatically changing world.
“You have to be realistic about dealing with the world as it is rather than what you might want it to be,” said Claire Ainsley, Starmer’s former policy director who now leads the Progressive Policy Institute’s centre-left renewal project.
“In hindsight given the US result, it certainly looks like a wise decision to prioritise building relationships both with allies and those you might not necessarily agree with on every issue.”Shortly before he was elected, Starmer told Bloomberg it was important to counter what he called “the rise of populism across Europe, across America and other countries” by making the case that “only progressive, democratic parties in government have the answers to the challenges that are out there”.
Since then, Kamala Harris failed to win that argument in the United States and German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition has collapsed.
French President Emmanuel Macron is also weakened after his decision to call a snap election led to a minority government.
Starmer’s belief has not shifted, but he looks increasingly isolated trying to make the case.
He was one of just a handful of G20 leaders to attend United Nations climate talks this week in Azerbaijan.
Trump’s victory is dominating conversations in Starmer’s government, and inevitably in the British media.
Their personal relationship is limited; Trump had nice words for Starmer before their meeting in New York in September, though the president-elect has privately called the British premier “very-left wing”.
Starmer, for his part, has said all the right diplomatic things about working with the US administration – guarding the “special relationship” is a political must for any premier – but can’t evade the fact that his administration preferred Harris.
Though Trump is unpopular with British voters, Starmer may wish senior Labour figures had been less openly critical of the president-elect in the past.
Behind the scenes, British officials are trying to assess the Trump impact across a swathe of the Starmer’s positions.
Aides see the risk of a global trade war sparked by Trump’s threatened tariffs as a major threat to the premier’s core pledge to boost economic growth.
Even though most of the United Kingdom’s exports to America are services rather than goods, they privately hold little hope of being able to negotiate a trade deal with the United States.
Officials also discussed with growing nervousness last week Trump’s picks for senior jobs.
Views expressed by Tulsi Gabbard, his choice for director of national intelligence, on Russia and Ukraine have raised alarm bells, according to people familiar with the matter.
The appointments appear to be on the more worrying end of the scale from the British perspective, one person said, expressing surprise that billionaire Elon Musk had sent several posts on his X social media platform attacking the British government since being given a job by Trump.
The United Kingdom is largely in the dark about what Trump intends to do on Ukraine, a Starmer ally said.
In the meantime, the British government continues to explore options with allies on the use of long-range weapons by Ukraine in Russia, as it has over recent months, people familiar with the matter said.
In China, too, there are questions about how Trump’s win affects British policy.
The Labour government wants better economic ties with Beijing, and Starmer’s officials are in talks for him to meet President Xi Jinping in Rio de Janeiro this week, according to people familiar with the matter.
If it happens, it would be the first leader level meeting between the nations since 2018.
But government officials are warning ministers the last Trump administration held significant sway over UK policy on China, including on the removal of Huawei equipment from British 5G networks in 2020.
The reality is that the United States could make it much harder for the United Kingdom to seek closer ties with China, one said.
The logical solution, according to some in the Labour party, is for Starmer to focus on keeping the EU close.
The premier was a staunch Remainer in the 2016 Brexit referendum and argued for the softest of divorces when Labour was in opposition.
Reducing trade friction with the bloc would appeal.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves acknowledged the economic damage caused by Brexit in her speech last Thursday to the finance industry at the Mansion House, where Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey also said the United Kindom should “rebuild relations” with the bloc.
“Let’s get together and be closer to Europe,” Canary Wharf group chairman Nigel Wilson told Bloomberg Radio last Friday. “Trump may prove to be the catalyst that makes that happen.”
Yet enduring questions about Brexit illustrate the balancing act facing Starmer, and how foreign affairs and the re-emergence of Trump also have profound implications for the Labour leader’s prospects at home.
For Starmer’s strategists, a key lesson from Trump’s win is that progressive leaders must be alive to voters’ concerns or risk a right-wing populist surge.
Labour must make people feel better off, fix the National Health Service and reduce immigration, otherwise Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could mount a Trump-style challenge at the next election in 2029, one said.
The prime minister has faced criticism within Labour for his own trips, given pressing domestic priorities. But his aides call that argument facile and that the premier’s agenda hinges on getting allies onside.
Trump’s comeback has made that even more complicated. — Bloomberg
