Trade data
THE Statistics Department is set to release trade data and the consumer price index (CPI) for October 2024 this week.
Balance of trade is expected to be at RM45mil by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
Bloomberg estimates a 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth for exports, while UOB Global Economics and Markets Research forecasts a decline of 2% y-o-y, compared to a 0.3% decline y-o-y change in September.
On the trade surplus, Bloomberg estimates it at US$5.9bil, while UOB anticipates a surplus of US$13.1bil, compared to US$13.2bil in September.
Bloomberg and UOB estimate inflation will grow by 1.8% y-o-y, unchanged from September.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara will release its international reserves as at Nov 15 on Friday.
China’s LPR
ACCORDING to a Bloomberg poll, expectations were unanimous for China’s one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) fixings to remain unchanged at 3.10% and 3.60%, respectively.
UOB is also expecting the fixing to be unchanged in November.
In the long term, China’s one-year LPR is projected to trend around 2.85% in 2025 and 3.25% in 2026, according to Trading Economics.
Bank Indonesia decision
ACCORDING to a Bloomberg poll, of the 10 analysts surveyed, six of them expected Bank Indonesia (BI) to maintain its seven- day reverse repo policy rate at 6%, while the remaining four predicted a cut of 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75%.
UOB expected no change in this meeting, as its view has slightly shifted. It is now anticipating that BI will continue its rate-cutting cycle later this quarter, possibly in December, with a 25bps cut to 5.75%.
UOB also maintained its outlook for 2025, projecting a cumulative 100bps cuts to the BI rate, bringing it to 4.75% by the end of next year.
