Stock shield: A man walks along Wall Street near the New York Stock Exchange. State-level employment data showed October payroll declines were most pronounced in Florida and Washington state, reflecting the hurricanes and industrial action, respectively. — Bloomberg
NEW YORK: US hiring probably jumped in November after hurricanes and a major strike undercut job growth a month earlier, consistent with a labour market that’s healthy yet gradually cooling.
Nonfarm payrolls probably advanced by 200,000 in November, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The data due Friday are also expected to show the unemployment rate held at 4.1%.
On Wednesday, US Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Jerome Powell participates in a moderated discussion, and investors will await any assessment of the job market and inflation as well as clues to whether the US central bank will lower interest rates in December.
With the strike at Boeing Co now settled and recovery efforts underway after hurricanes Helene and Milton slammed the US South, the November employment report should have fewer caveats than the prior month.
However, a steady decline in open positions and moderating payrolls growth, along with recent layoffs at Boeing and planned job cuts at General Motors Co, suggest a broader softening.
State-level employment data showed October payroll declines were most pronounced in Florida and Washington state, reflecting the hurricanes and industrial action, respectively.
But a total of 29 states shed jobs, among the highest monthly tallies since the pandemic.
“November’s jobs report will likely be an improvement on October’s, but not the type of strong rebound one would expect if all of October’s weakness were due to temporary factors.
“The underlying pace of job growth is likely below what’s needed to stabilise the unemployment rate – which we still expect to hit 4.5% before year-end,” said Bloomberg Economics.The latest figures on job openings and layoff announcements will precede Friday’s employment report.
The Institute for Supply Management will also release its latest readings on activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, while the Fed issues its Beige Book survey of regional conditions.
In addition to Powell, Fed governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to speak at the central bank’s framework conference today.
Other Fed officials set to make appearances during the week include John Williams, Alberto Musalem, Adriana Kugler, Beth Hammack, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee and Michelle Bowman.
In Canada, November jobs figures will be the last key data point before a Dec 11 rate decision.
October’s report showed a small gain that fell below expectations, underscoring labour weakness.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Association for Business Economics conference will bring together leading economists.
Elsewhere, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development will publish new economic forecasts on Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) chief Christine Lagarde testifies to lawmakers the same day, and a plethora of inflation and growth numbers are due from Australia to Switzerland.
Asia gets a flurry of purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures to start the week, with reports today from South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan and Vietnam.
China gets Caixin PMIs in two batches, starting today with the manufacturing gauge, which has bounced between the boom-or-bust 50 level over the past four months.
Australia takes the spotlight tomorrow with the release of current account data that may affect third-quarter gross domestic product statistics due a day later.
Those gross domestic product (GDP) figures are expected to show a marginal acceleration of growth after a tepid performance in the previous period, with a consensus estimate of 0.5% growth from the prior quarter and 1.1% versus a year earlier.
Elsewhere, South Korea also gets GDP data and Japan sees several sets of third-quarter corporate figures, including key capital spending data that will give a steer as to how GDP data for the period may be revised.
Japan also publishes cash earnings and household spending data for October, with attention focused on whether a continuing slide in real wages will weigh on spending.
South Korea’s consumer inflation figures are expected to show price growth of 1.7%, the third straight month below the central bank’s target.
Also releasing consumer price index reports are Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan and Kazakhstan.
Trade data are due from South Korea, Australia, Pakistan and Vietnam.
Among central banks, the Reserve Bank of India is likely to stand pat on policy on Friday, while Bank of Japan board member Toyoaki Nakamura, a dove, gives a speech on Thursday.
Testimony by ECB president Christine Lagarde to the European Parliament may be a highlight.
Wednesday’s appearance will allow her to have the final word before a blackout period kicks in ahead of the Dec 12 rate decision, where a quarter-point cut is widely expected.
Questions she will face may touch on the path of inflation, which just jumped to a four-month high.
Indicators on the strength of the private sector will draw most attention in the eurozone.
Surveys of purchasing managers in Italy and Spain will be released on today for manufacturing and Wednesday for services.
Industrial production figures for France and Spain are due on Thursday, while Germany’s are scheduled for Friday. — Bloomberg
