THE end of 2024 also marks the beginning of the second half of the 2020s.
Decades often develop a distinct image that reflects historical events and cultural trends. After two decades that are hard to classify, the 2020s have so far been the decade of rotating crises. The decade opened with the worst pandemic in a hundred years.
That was followed in 2022 by the first major war in Europe since World War II as Russia invaded Ukraine. Then, in 2023, the Middle East exploded after Hamas’ attack on Israel.
In 2024, Donald Trump won reelection as US president, sending shivers around the world. In South Korea, Yoon Yuk Yeol’s declaration of martial law and subsequent impeachment has sent one of Asia’s leading democracies into its most serious political crisis in decades. The effects of climate change, meanwhile, continue to worsen at an accelerating pace.
Things could change in 2025 as crisis fatigue forces talk of a way out. Take the Middle East. Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in late November, and it appears to be holding.
The collapse of the pro-Iranian regime of Bashar Assad has greatly weakened Iran’s position, which may help bring about a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Once the fighting stops, the process of rebuilding can begin, though that will be fraught with danger until more stable structures of peace are agreed to.
The war in Ukraine also appears to be heading toward some sort of resolution. Both sides are weary of war and neither side is close to achieving victory on its terms.
Donald Trump and his Maga Republicans have threatened to end US aid to Ukraine, but do not want to see Ukraine collapse on their watch. Political turmoil in France and Germany, Europe’s leading nations, makes it difficult to summon the political will to replace any lost US support.
The political crisis in South Korea will consume the nation for the first half of the year while President Yoon’s fate is decided. Removal from office is the most likely outcome, which would prompt a new election within 60 days.
By the middle of the year, South Korea will most likely have a new leader who can focus on serious challenges facing the nation. Hopefully, the new leader will try to ameliorate the politically polarised environment by reaching out to supporters of the election loser.
The next year holds the potential for new, unseen crises. Aside from the conflict in the Middle East, few pundits could have predicted the big crises of the first half of the 2020s.
Worsening tension between the United States and China, however, makes for a predictable crisis that could explode later in the decade. The two countries will spend most of 2025 getting used to Trump 2.0, which is certain to include higher tariffs on Chinese goods flowing into the United States.
They will have a negative effect on both countries, causing inflation in the United States and dampening economic growth in China.
A major source of tension is the status of Taiwan. China wants to subjugate Taiwan, but it also wants to avoid starting a catastrophic war with the United States and its allies.
To date, China has assumed that US influence will weaken, but China’s post-pandemic slowdown and recent strength in the US economy may have changed those calculations, at least for now.
And then there is Donald Trump. Many voters in the recent US election remember him for a strong pre-pandemic economy, but the political establishment then successfully constrained his worst impulses.
Those guardrails have now largely disappeared, and he feels emboldened to push hard. Higher tariffs and bigger budget deficits risk renewed inflation and higher interest rates.
Tax cuts and cutting regulation may spur some growth, but it most likely will not make up for weakening business and consumer sentiment.
For South Korea, all of this means that the global economic environment could turn negative just as the nation is exiting the political crisis. The new administration will find itself facing an economic and geopolitical puzzle full of risky choices. — The Korea Herald/ANN
Robert J. Fouser is a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
