Smart pick: Nvidia Corp’s office in Shanghai, China. A US$10,000 investment in the company in 2024 would have turned into US$27,117. — Bloomberg
NEW YORK: Wars in Europe and the Middle East. Global political upheaval. Angst over a potential US recession.
These and other pitfalls stalked markets in 2024 but in the end investors who embraced risk reaped the rewards.
Relatively constrained volatility across assets provided a foundation for the gains, so much so that the question now is whether bigger swings are all but inevitable in 2025.
For the year just gone, MSCI Inc’s global stock gauge fell 2% or more on only three days, on the way to an annual climb of almost 16%.
The United States drove the equity rally, notably a surge of 67% in an index tracking the Magnificent Seven megacap tech firms of Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corp, Nvidia Corp and Tesla Inc.
That reflects “an extraordinary phase of outperformance” for the United States as inflation cooled, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates and the global economy avoided recession, according to Nick Ferres, the chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management.
Other big performers included controversial cryptocurrency bitcoin, which rose just over 120% and punched through US$100,000 for the first time on President-elect Donald Trump’s support for digital assets.
Gold, the more established store of value, posted a 27% jump – the largest in 14 years – as central banks and others sought a hedge for the panoply of geopolitical and economic threats.
Trump’s crypto pivot
Speculators flocked to crypto anticipating a boom from Trump’s promise to make the United States the global linchpin of the sector.
Meme-crowd favourite dogecoin’s 253% advance would have turned a US$10,000 wager into US$35,345.
A similar bet on market-leader bitcoin would have ended up at US$22,046.
Along the way, bitcoin scaled a record high of US$108,316 before pulling back.
US megacap tech
While enthusiasm about the transformative potential of artificial intelligence lifted the US megacap tech sector as a whole, chipmaker Nvidia was the clear winner among major names, turning US$10,000 into US$27,117.
By contrast, Microsoft lagged behind, adding US$1,209 to such a notional investment.
Milei’s shock therapy
Argentina’s S&P Merval Index was by far the best performer in a group of 92 primary equity indexes globally, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That reflects investor optimism about President Javier Milei’s efforts to quell inflation and reverse years of endemic budget deficits.
A sum of US$10,000 ploughed into the gauge would have become US$21,377, adjusting for currency moves.
Gold, silver
Gold received a boost from purchases by central banks – especially the People’s Bank of China and others in emerging markets – as well as Fed monetary easing and haven demand during periods of global tension.
A US$10,000 investment in the precious metal would have increased to US$12,722.
Silver got a tow from the gold rally and would have lifted US$10,000 to US$12,146. — Bloomberg
