IPI
Malaysia's November 2024 industrial production index (IPI) will be published this week along with the monthly manufacturing statistics, unemployment rate and retail sales.
The IPI is projected to reach 3.60% by the end of this quarter.
This is based on Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
Retail sales year-on-year (y-o-y) in Malaysia is expected to be 3.80% by the end of this quarter.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara is expected to announce its international reserves as of Dec 31 on Wednesday.
Inflation figures
China, Taiwan, the Philippines and Thailand are set to release their consumer price index (CPI) data this week.
Bloomberg projects Thailand’s inflation to expand 2.1% y-o-y from 2.08% in November while core CPI is at 1.7% y-o-y from 1.74% in November.
UOB Global Economics and Markets Research estimates Thailand’s inflation to grow by 1.41% y-o-y from minus 0.13% month-on-month, compared to 0.95% y-o-y in November, while core inflation is expected to rise to 0.85% y-o-y from 0.80% in November.
UOB economist Sathit Talaengsatya expects headline inflation to rise further, primarily due to last year’s low-base effect.
A favourable supply of agricultural products and increased price competition among retailers may create downside risks to the results.
For 2024, he forecast headline inflation to average 0.4%, with core inflation expected to rise slightly to 0.6%.
China data in focus
China is expected to announce its inflation data, Caixin China services PMI, foreign reserves, M2 money supply and new loans this week.
Bloomberg estimates China’s CPI growth for December at 0.1% y-o-y, down from 0.2% in November 2024.
Additionally, Bloomberg projects a decline in reserves to US$3.24 trillion to US$3.3 trillion from US$3.26 trillion in November.
China’s Caixin services PMI is expected to reach 51.10 points by the end of this quarter.
This is according to data provider Trading Economics’ global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
