Pic from China Daily
SHANGHAI: China made significant progress toward achieving its long-term climate targets in 2024, spearheading the global energy transition at an unprecedented rate of growth around the globe.
Against this backdrop, experts are increasingly optimistic about the country’s advancements in meeting its climate commitments.
This positive momentum, however, does not guarantee a seamless journey toward peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality before 2060, with significant challenges remaining ahead.
With increasing renewable capacity coming online, coal-fired power plants are more frequently being used for backup power supply. This process of powering up and powering down coal-fired power stations can actually cause more air pollution than consistently operating a station at optimal performance conditions, complicating this phase of curbing emissions.
According to the National Energy Administration, in the first three quarters of 2024, the newly installed capacity for renewable energy power generation across the country surged to 210 million kilowatt-hour (kWh).
This marked a 21% increase compared to the same period in the previous year and represented 86% of the total new power generation capacity, it said. The combined new capacity from wind and solar power generation surpassed 200 million kWh.
China’s total nuclear power generation capacity in operation and under construction ranks first in the world, said administration head Wang Hongzh in December.
In 2024, 11 new nuclear power facilities were approved, making a total of 102 nuclear power units in operation or under construction across the country, with a total installed capacity of 113 million kWh, he said. In 2025, China will greenlight a series of coastal nuclear power projects and progressively propel the ongoing construction of others, he said.
By the end of that year, the operational nuclear power capacity in China is projected to reach 65 million kWh.
A recent report from Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy based in the United Kingdom, said China continues to lead the global energy transition, on its path to source 50% of its power from low-carbon energy including hydro, solar, wind, nuclear and energy storage by 2028.
“Never has the world witnessed the pace of growth or transformation of an energy system that China is currently achieving,” said Malcolm Forbes-Cable, vice-president of upstream and carbon management at Wood Mackenzie.
By 2025, China’s installed solar and wind capacity will exceed that of both Europe and North America, he said.
The report also noted a significant transformation in China’s transport sector.
By 2034, battery electric vehicles (BEV) will dominate passenger vehicle sales, reaching a 66% market share, it said.
Combining battery EV and hybrids, EVs will constitute 89% of total sales, it added.
“BEVs are projected to grow by 8% annually through 2030, while sales of internal combustion engine vehicles are expected to decline by 11% each year,” said Forbes-Cable.
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), based in Helsinki, Finland, has published for the third year its annual assessment of China’s progress toward its climate commitments and emissions pathways aligned with the goals outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change.
This year – in cooperation with the International Society for Energy Transition Studies – CREA surveyed a pool of 44 experts representing diverse specialisations in the fields of climate and energy.
“Over the past three years, expert views have steadily shifted towards optimism on China’s progress,” the centre noted in November.
Some 52% of experts surveyed this year believe China is on track to peak coal consumption by 2025, while only one-fifth say the peak will take place later, according to the latest report.
In 2022, 69% of experts expected China’s emissions to peak more than 15% above their 2020 level. But by 2024, this share was 44%, it said.
While the majority of experts continue to think that China’s current economic situation is leading to an acceleration of the energy transition, the share of those who think the economic situation is going to slow down progress increased from 34% in 2023 to 43% in 2024, according to the report. — China Daily/ANN
