GDP in focus
THE Statistics Department is expected to release advance real gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the fourth quarter of financial year 2024 (4Q24) along with wholesale and retail trade for November 2024.
Bloomberg estimates Malaysia’s GDP in 4Q24 to have grown by 4.6% year-on-year (y-o-y). For the full year, Bloomberg expects the economy to expand 5% in 2024 from 5.2% in 2023.
Meanwhile, UOB Global Economics & Markets Research (UOB) forecast GDP to expand by 5% in 4Q24, up from 4.6% in 3Q24, with a full-year growth forecast of 4.9%.
According to Trading Economics, Malaysia’s GDP annual growth rate is expected to reach 6% by the end of 1Q25, based on global macro models and analysts’ expectations.
Monetary policy
BANK Indonesia (BI) and the Bank of Korea (BoK) are expected to announce their monetary policy decisions this week.
According to a Bloomberg survey, all five economists polled including UOB expect the BoK to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%.
UOB kept its forecast of a 25 bps rate cut per quarter in 1Q25 and 2Q25 to bring the benchmark rate to its terminal level at 2.5%.
Meanwhile, all four economists polled agree that BI will keep its rate unchanged at 6% in January.
China data dump
IT will be a busy week for China with a slew of economic data set to be released, including 4Q24 GDP, trade data, industrial production and M2 money supply.
Bloomberg estimates China’s 4Q24 GDP to have grown by 1.7% quarter-on-quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis and 5% y-o-y, with a full-year growth forecast of 5% in 2024, down from 5.2% in 2023.
Bloomberg also estimates exports to grow 7.4% y-o-y, up from 6.7% in November, imports to decline by 1.4% y-o-y, improving from a 3.9% decline in November, with the trade surplus likely around US$100bil, up from US$97.44bil in November.
China’s consumer price index slowed for the fourth consecutive month to 0.1% y-o-y in December and was flat on a month-on-month (m-o-m) comparison. The producer price index deflation eased to minus 2.3% y-o-y in December while momentum eased to fall at minus 0.1% m-o-m.
