Tackling inflation: People exit the RBNZ building in Wellington. The New Zealand central bank is moving to revive the ailing economy and signals a lower cash rate trajectory in the coming months compared with previous forecasts. — AFP
WELLINGTON: New Zealand’s central bank has cuts its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 3.75% and policymakers have flagged further reductions in borrowing costs amid moderating inflation as they seek to revive a struggling economy.
The New Zealand dollar slipped while the 90-day bank bill futures rallied, as markets priced in a 25-basis-point cut in April, and more reductions by the end of the year.
“The economic outlook remains consistent with inflation remaining in the band over the medium term, giving the committee confidence to continue lowering the overnight cash rate (OCR),” the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) said in its accompanying policy statement.
The decision was in line with a Reuters poll where 32 of the 33 economists surveyed forecast the RBNZ would cut the cash rate for the fourth straight meeting, and by half a percentage point.
“If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the committee has scope to lower the OCR further through 2025,” the RBNZ said.
The central bank signalled a lower cash rate trajectory in the coming months compared with previous forecasts, but the reductions are expected to be in smaller 25-basis-point moves.
It now projects that rates will fall to 3.45% by June, and the year-end rate is expected to be 3.1%, down from the November estimate of 3.2%.
“The main message from today’s Monetary Policy statement is the lowering again of the official cash rate track. The RBNZ are signalling more cuts, sooner,” said Kiwibank chief economist Jarrod Kerr
The central bank has now cut rates by 175 basis points since August, with a slowdown in inflation giving policymakers leeway to extend their easing efforts in a much needed boost for an economy struggling to emerge from a deep recession.
The RBNZ said it is well placed to maintain price stability over the medium term and respond to future inflationary shocks, but added that global uncertainty over tariff policies pose some risks to the economy.
“The RBNZ’s aggressive 50-basis-point cut to 3.75% shows it is determination to revive the economy, despite inflation risks and global uncertainties like Donald Trump’s re-election as US president,” said Saxo Asia Pacific senior sales trader Junvum Kim.
Several of the large banks in New Zealand, including Westpac, ASB Bank, Kiwibank and Bank of New Zealand, cut mortgage rates following the cash rate announcement.
Bill futures rallied as markets priced in a 93% chance of an easing in April and have rates near 3% by year-end, which is seen as the bottom of the cycle.
The kiwi dollar slipped 0.3% to US$0.5683, having already lost 0.5% on Tuesday.
A global front-runner in withdrawing pandemic-era stimulus, the RBNZ lifted rates 525 basis points since October 2021 to curb inflation in the most aggressive tightening since the cash rate was introduced in 1999.
The punishing borrowing costs, however, took a heavy toll on demand and tipped the economy into recession in the third quarter of last year – the worst downturn outside of the pandemic since 1991.
The weakened state of the economy has added urgency to policymakers efforts to stimulate demand.
The government has already abandoned hopes for a return to budget surpluses, seeing deficits for the next five years. New Zealand’s annual inflation has come off in recent months and is currently at 2.2%.
However, the central bank said a volatile period ahead will probably see it increase to 2.7% in the third quarter before moderating again.
New Zealand is one of several countries to ease rates as inflation has moved lower, but its sharp reductions to borrowing costs contrast with a more cautious approach by the US Federal Reserve and its counterpart in Australia.
The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday delivered the first cut in interest rates in more than four years, but signalled a cautious approach to any further easing.
Trade and other broader economic policies under US president Donald Trump’s second term in power have also raised policy uncertainty around the world due to the renewed risk of inflation.
“Lower interest rates will encourage spending, although elevated global economic uncertainty is expected to weigh on business investment decisions,” the RBNZ said. — Reuters
