Pic from Bloomberg
Inflation
MALAYSIA’S consumer price index (CPI), which is expected to be released this week, is estimated to grow 1.5% in February year-on-year (y-o-y), down from 1.7% in January.
Bloomberg estimates inflation to show a y-o-y growth of 1.4%, while UOB Global Economics & Markets Research projects a 1.6% y-o-y increase.
The inflation rate is projected to reach 2.2% by the end of this quarter, based on Trading Economics’ global macro models and analyst expectations.
Additionally, the Statistics Department is also expected to release February’s trade data this week.
UOB estimates Malaysian exports to have grown 1% y-o-y in February compared to 0.3% in January. Imports are projected to increase by 8.5% y-o-y, up from 6.2% y-o-y in January.
The trade balance is expected to reach RM3.9bil in February, improving from RM3.6bil in the previous month.
Foreign data
BANK Indonesia (BI) and the Taiwan Central Bank (CBC) are the two major central banks making monetary policy decisions this week.
All eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect BI to maintain its benchmark policy rate at 5.75%.
Similarly, all four economists polled anticipate CBC to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2%. UOB and ING also expect CBC to keep rates unchanged at 2%.
China is set to release a series of key economic data this week, including the one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR), industrial production, retail sales, property investment and the jobless rate.
According to a Bloomberg poll, all 10 economists surveyed unanimously expect the one-year and five-year LPR fixings to remain unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively.
Bloomberg estimates industrial production will grow by 5.3% y-o-y for January-February, down from 5.8% in December 2024.
