Producers are keeping the recent dry conditions on their radars heading into 2025. — Reuters
US Crop Watch producers have all but wrapped up their 2024 corn and soybean harvests, which progressed quickly amid persistent dry weather, and overall yields wound up a bit better than average.
However, producers are keeping the recent dry conditions on their radars heading into 2025, especially after grain and oilseed prices hit four-year-lows earlier this year.
Low commodity prices call for big crop yields when it comes to producers’ bottom lines, and favourable weather plays a large role. However, producers have become more confident with their ability to hit the bigger yields, especially in corn, and this could impact the US acreage mix in 2025.
Crop Watch producers throughout the season rated weekly yield potential on a one-to-five scale where three is around farm average yield, four is solidly above average and five is record or close to it. Scores are finalised after harvest.
The US Department of Agriculture (Usda) projects record domestic corn and soybean yields in 2024.
However, average 2024 Crop Watch yields were not the highest ever seen in the project’s seven-year history, and this could suggest a couple of things.
First, the impact of Iowa cannot be overstated. Both Iowa Crop Watch corn fields scored fives, but the actual yields were notably above previous highs.
The only other Crop Watch corn field to score a four or better was Indiana, which fell slightly short of its record.
All other corn fields, except drought-hit Ohio, finished with mostly average yields.
Pending the outcome of North Dakota’s harvest this week, average 2024 Crop Watch corn yield finishes at 3.3, the lowest since the 11-field format began in 2021.
That signals a modestly above-average result that at first sight might clash with Usda’s 183.8 bushel-per-acre forecast.
But it supports the idea that national trend yield, despite doubts, may have climbed into the low 180s with a much greater potential should widespread, favourable weather span an entire growing season.
The impact of the I-states this year also shows up in soybeans. The 11-field average Crop Watch soybean yield finishes at 3.64 for 2024. That is above 2023, identical to 2022 but below 2021.
However, the average 2024 Crop Watch soybean yield across Iowa, Illinois and Indiana is higher than in the previous three years.
Low prices are at the forefront of the Crop Watch producers’ minds, especially with 2025 production costs expected to be similar to those of 2024. Producers report that some input costs have come down, but fertiliser is still relatively expensive.
At last estimate, US corn and soybean production costs for 2024 were slightly lower than in 2023 but still elevated compared with four-plus years ago, when crop prices were similarly low.
The Usda in June projected 2025 corn and soybean production costs up fractionally from 2024, though a fresh forecast is due on Nov 14.
While profitability potential is low across the board, at least seven of the 11 Crop Watch producers said they are currently favouring corn over soybeans for 2025 due to factors including yield advantage, crop insurance levels and current prices.
CBOT December 2025 corn futures on Monday settled at US$4.40-3/4 per bushel, and November 2025 soybeans finished at US$10.35-1/4. That compares with averages for the 2024 contracts of US$5.14 and US$12.77 during October and November of 2023.
Producers in both Kansas and North Dakota said wheat is attractive for 2025, partly due to tight global supplies.
Corn and soybeans are not enticing for either, though the North Dakota producer is likely to cut corn acres because of high input costs and interest rates, and that is despite corn looking better on paper than soybeans. — Reuters
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. The views expressed here are the writer’s own.
