Developing countries would do far better to put services in the lead role, with manufacturing and agriculture serving as the supporting cast. — The Jakarta Post
FOR developing countries around the world, especially the poorest, the economic terrain has seldom been so slippery. Low-income countries have already suffered a lost decade, with virtually zero per capita income growth since 2010.
Many middle-income countries are coming to terms with a demographic shift that puts them at risk of growing old before they grow rich.
And many high-income countries risk stagnation because of sky-high debt and anemic productivity growth. Such conditions are not conducive to international comity, at least not of the kind that fuelled so much progress after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
Developing economies will need to get better at fending for themselves, and while some are already preparing to do so, they are operating with an antiquated policy framework.
In the third decade of the 21st Century, does it really make sense for developing countries to place an all-or-nothing bet on manufacturing?
New research from the World Bank shows clearly that it does not.
Developing countries would do far better to put services in the lead role, with manufacturing and agriculture serving as the supporting cast. Services include a wide range of activities, including finance, health, tourism and logistics, and the benefits they generate spill over to other sectors. Yet relative to manufacturing, they continue to get a bad rap.
Supposedly, they are notoriously slow to innovate, hard to trade, and difficult to free from regulatory restrictions. Yet services now account for more than two-thirds of global gross domestic product (GDP) and half of global trade (once you factor in services that are used in manufacturing and agriculture).
Among those seizing the opportunities offered by trade in services, the most striking examples come from the home of the “Asian miracle”.
While the textbook manufacturing-led model of economic growth once worked wonders in East Asia, these countries’ circumstances and needs have changed.
Their populations are ageing quickly, the global economy is becoming more fragmented and they are adapting. Over the past decade, our research shows, the share of services grew from 44% of economic activity in China to 53%, and from 44% to 48% in other economies across East Asia. These sectors now account for nearly 50% of employment in the region, up from 42% a decade ago. This shift reflects the rapid rise of digital technologies, as nearly three-quarters of people in East Asia and the Pacific now have access to the Internet, a seven-fold increase from 2000, as well as modest trade liberalisation for services.
The result is an Asian economic renaissance. Opening services to competition has fuelled higher labour productivity even in manufacturing and agriculture, where firms can check prices, deliver goods and receive payments much more efficiently.
Across all major economies in East Asia and the Pacific, services now contribute more than manufacturing to overall labour-productivity growth, an essential condition for higher wages. — The Jakarta Post/ANN
Indermit Gill is chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics at the World Bank. Aaditya Mattoo is chief economist of East Asia and Pacific Region at the World Bank. The views expressed here are the writers’ own.
