Chinese voters face an almost impossible choice between staying to vote, staying and not voting, or leaving the country, says the writer. — AZHAR MAHFOF/The Star.
THE upcoming six state elections may see a voter swing from Pakatan Harapan to Perikatan Nasional, a scenario that leaves the Chinese voter in a quandary.
It is a plausible scenario, according to the Merdeka Centre, which begs the following questions: “How will the non-Malays vote?”, “How will Chinese voters behave?", and, “Will the Chinese even come out to vote?”
First, to examine this potential “swing”, clearly a continuation of the voting trends of the 15th General Election.
During GE15 in Selangor, Perikatan (made up of PAS and Bersatu) garnered between 65% and 90% of new and young voters added to the electoral roll following Undi18, the lowering of the voting age to 18 and automatic voter registration.
This helped Perikatan win the six parliamentary constituencies it currently holds in Selangor, as well as narrow the gap between Pakatan and Perikatan votes in other parts of the state. This also indicates how large Perikatan’s impact was in GE15, especially among first-time Malay voters.
Then, cracks within Umno, including subsequent defections to Bersatu and PAS, signalled strong disillusionment within Umno.
The Green Wave
Together with a new army of voters, the disintegration of Umno triggered a “green wave” that swept PAS into Parliament with the largest majority of 49 seats.
In addition, fast on the heels of the formation of the unity government post GE15, was the appointment of independent Senator Datuk Dr Mohd Naim Mokhtar as Minister of Religious Affairs in the Prime Minister’s Department.
The former 4th Chief Judge of the Syariah Court almost immediately announced the re-emergence of RUU355 as an important agenda that is “beneficial for the wellbeing of society”.
Pakatan as the ruling government, had reintroduced the tabling of the amendment to RUU355 on the expansion in powers of sentencing and jurisdiction of the Syariah Courts, and rightfully set off alarm bells in all communities, again.
Ironically, the amendment was first raised in Parliament by PAS president and Marang MP Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang in 2016, seeking harsher punishments for Shariah offences, but he faced much objection and resistance from Muslims and non-Muslims alike. Amid fears of a Hudud-type administration, RUU355 was dropped and remained unacknowledged for over six years. Until the recent Pakatan government decided to take it up again via Naim.
Lastly, the Pakatan government’s decision to drop the appeal against the use of the word “Allah” by non-Muslims, has once again drawn both fear and ire.
PM Anwar Ibrahim is looking to streamline the contradicting laws that prohibits use of the word in Peninsular Malaysia yet enables its conditional usage in East Malaysia. He is seeking final directives on this matter from the Council of Rulers, who are scheduled to meet in July, and who, by definition, exist to uphold and preserve Malay customs and the Islamic religion.
This flip-flopping has sown even more distrust for the Pakatan government, both from Christians who thought the matter was put to rest, and from Muslims who may see Anwar’s move as populist and inconsiderate to say the least.
In fact, this distrust for the Pakatan government began on day 1 with a credibility deficit, when Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was severely attacked by his own party members and called to step down during GE15, only to be appointed deputy prime minister.
That was just the beginning of the many deep-rooted issues that currently plague the ruling coalition. Many have lost trust in PKR and are suspicious of Umno, which has led to increasing support for Perikatan in Malay majority urban areas, most of whom reside in Selangor.
Given all the above, the apparent Islamist “green wave” might well set the stage for a swing towards voting for Perikatan after all.
Voter sentiment
How might this affect the Chinese voter sentiment?
Evidently, there is a real disappointment in Pakatan over the RUU355 issue. There is also a real fear of growing Islamist influence in the shared public space, and its repercussions on the private lives of non-Muslims.
Umno’s latest move, to invite the presidents of 19 political parties including PKR and DAP to its Annual General Assembly this week, could perhaps be final nail in the coffin for Pakatan.
Not only does this completely sideline the significance of Umno’s traditional partners MCA and MIC, but it confirms PKR and DAP’s continued alliance with a crumbling institution.
DAP’s recent call for all members in the six states facing elections to vote for Umno in order to sustain the unity government, and vice versa, has created an uncertain identity that voters are unfamiliar with.
In fact, DAP may find it difficult to woo its voters after having ceded so much ground to the Pakatan coalition’s objectives. They may need to reassure voters of a stable identity, although disillusionment among Chinese voters could well increase.
It might be useful to note that while Chinese voters may be unhappy with Pakatan and DAP, it is almost certain that they are even more afraid of Perikatan and PAS.
All this might result in a low voter turnout, as the Chinese feel they have been given Hobson's choice.
On the other hand, there is a significant part of the Chinese electorate with an increasingly sophisticated understanding of Malaysian politics. These voters would be the younger Chinese constituency who see Malaysia as their tanah air.
They might be able to accept the need for give and take, that some issues can be championed, while others are best left alone. For example, having the appeal dropped against the use of the word “Allah” in exchange for amendments to RUU355. For now.
They may even see that Pakatan component parties, by attending the Umno general assembly, and vice versa, are indeed becoming more open and collaborative.
Polls and votes
In GE15, there were 6.9 million new voters due to Undi18 and automatic voter registration.
Closer examination of the electorate shows that only 16% (1.1million) were between 18-20 years old. The rest mainly represented the 21–50-year-old bracket.
Out of the 6.9 million new voters, 60% of voters were Malay, Chinese voters made up 25% or 1.7 million, and Indian voters made up 7% or 483,000 throughout the nation.
So while first time youth voters clearly made their voices heard, it is clear that Undi18 and automatic voter registration also served to further strengthen the traditional clout of much older voters and give them a louder voice.
Specifically in Selangor, with a population of over 7 million, the number of registered voters in GE15 increased by 52.28%. This raised the total of eligible voters in the state to 3,677,848 (compared to 2,415,074 in GE14), the highest in the country.
In terms of age, adult voters aged 21-59 were the largest voter base at 2,805,596 or 76.29%, with senior citizens aged 60 and above totalled 598,549 or 21.33% while youths aged 18 to 20 came up to 273,703 or 7.44%.
Simple inference of the above suggests that the total number of Chinese youth voters in Selangor during GE15 hovers around the 60-70,000 mark.
Studies by the Yusof Ishak Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, (ISEAS) suggest that if a Chinese youth voter comes from an prosperous, urban, Chinese majority state like Penang or Selangor, his or her vote will not make much of an impact.
But if the Chinese youth voter is from a Malay-majority semi-urban area with lower economy and less amenities, then the Chinese youth vote may well make a difference.
The Selangor state assembly comprises 56 seats, 33 of which are located in Malay-majority areas. Given Selangor’s mixed constituency and the Chinese community’s golden goose status in the economy, it seems the 16 seats held by DAP are already safe.
They aim to defend those seats and contest two additional seats, Semenyih and Selat Kelang, both of which are Malay-majority areas. Which may bode well, assuming Chinese youth voter turnout is notable.
In terms of the Indian vote, given the way MIC have been openly neglected by the BN and Pakatan unity government, they are leaning heavily towards Perikatan.
Hot button issues
How the Selangor state electorate performs in the upcoming elections will set the context for the remaining state elections in Penang and Negeri Sembilan. PAS-led Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu are almost foregone conclusions.
Most importantly, it will seal the fate of Anwar’s surreptitiously Islamist yet split-identity unity government.
Whether Pakatan retains Selangor, or the Perikatan/PAS-led green wave puts a dent in Pakatan’s 15-year stronghold, or whether Perikatan by some unforeseen force garners 33 seats and is able to form the Selangor state government, issues faced by the Chinese voter will likely remain the same.
In the lead up to polling day, it will pay to keep all ears on the ground – to gauge daily which issues keep surfacing, which to address, and which may convince the Chinese voter to turn up and vote.
One thing that must be kept on high alert, is the potential inevitability? for the Chinese electorate to disengage.
DAP vs MCA
The Malaysian Chinese community is faced with a large, long-term existential question. A decision that needs to be made now, for the sake of future generations:
Should I stay or should I go?
This exit strategy of some Chinese groups will entail the steady hedging of bets on Pakatan and Perikatan, while gradually divesting themselves of their interests in Malaysia.
An alternative would be to continue to invest in Malaysia if the China Belt and Road projects materialise, but to take up residence elsewhere in the world.
For others, who do not possess the wherewithal, can only do their best, and hope for the same. They will remember the public spiritedness and selfless actions of their DAP and MCA representatives who fought to ensure a stable and fair government in an inclusive Malaysia.
Rita Sim is co-founder of the Centre for Strategic Engagement and Cense Media.
