According to the public opinion survey with Pakatan-Barisan leading the race at the outset, the coalition is likely to retain Selangor in the election. — Freepik
It’s game on in Selangor for Pakatan Harapan versus Perikatan Nasional. The ‘defending champions’ look set for victory but it is not over yet for their main rivals who could still nick the grand prize, a survey shows.
AN intense battle for power is taking place in Selangor, with Opposition bloc Perikatan Nasional posing a threat to Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional’s nexus in their bid to win the state polls on Aug 12.
Selangor, known as a crown jewel state due to its economically viable location and high GDP, is also seeing a tug-of-war over Malay voters, especially the fencesitters.
According to a public opinion survey, however, with Pakatan-Barisan leading the race at the outset, the coalition is likely to retain Selangor in the election.
And as the survey shows, Pakatan’s partnership with Barisan has not dented people’s support, with 68% of respondents saying that they think Pakatan and Barisan should contest as one coalition.
The survey by research company Endeavour-MGC (EMGC) was conducted with face-to-face interviews of 1,068 registered voters, who comprised 67.8% Malay, 15.6% Chinese, 12.4% Indian and 4.2% others. It covered 34 state constituencies considered marginal seats, defined as seats that Pakatan won with a less than 25% majority and in which it received below 50% of the popular vote in the 15th General Election (GE15) in 2022.
These marginal seats are home to 57% or more Malay voters. They also include Kuala Kubu Baru, which despite its Malay voters only numbering up to 46%, is classified as a Malay-majority due to the constituency’s racial makeup.
High approval ratings
According to the opinion poll, 75% of respondents from all races approve of the overall performance of the Pakatan-led Selangor state government and 77% approve of Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari’s performance as mentri besar. This includes 70% and 68% of Malay respondents, who gave high ratings for Amirudin as MB and the state government he led respectively.
The survey also shows that 76% (69% Malay respondents) feel Pakatan should choose Amirudin as the MB again if Pakatan wins the state polls. Likewise, 73% (64% Malay respondents) approve of the overall performance of Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister while 73% (64% Malay respondents) approve of the overall performance of the unity government at the federal level.
Around 76% of the respondents (69% Malays) also approve of Pakatan and Barisan forming the unity government together after GE15.
At the ballot box, party remains the most important consideration for 61% of respondents (58% Malays) when casting their votes.
More than half of the respondents – 62% all races and 52% Malays – also say they would vote for Pakatan in the upcoming state elections.
Opposition bloc Perikatan is close behind with 22% (31% Malays), followed by Barisan with 11% (10% Malays). When asked how many of the 56 seats contested in Selangor will be won by the respective coalitions, Pakatan received 35 (Malays: 33) and Perikatan got 18 (Malays: 20).
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As EMGC concludes, based on this feedback – which was gathered before the July 29 nomination day – Selangor will remain a Pakatan-led state. However, the possibility of a Perikatan victory cannot be ruled out, it says. Specific conditions, as well as other variables during the ongoing campaign period, could spell victory for either side.
Perikatan’s challenge
There are two critical conditions that would need to be fulfilled for Perikatan to win the state, EMGC notes.
“The first condition is that the least-committed Pakatan and Barisan Malay voters swing to Perikatan, thereby reducing Malay support for Pakatan and Barisan to about one-third of all Malay votes cast.”
While they were Pakatan or Barisan supporters previously, EMGC says this group of voters is disappointed with the two parties’ handling of issues relating to Malay rights and religion.
“This bloc of voters is likely to mostly comprise former Barisan voters but also even some smaller segments of Pakatan voters.”
At the same time, many are unsure of the effectiveness of the Malaysia Madani economic policies with 68% of Malay respondents (70% of all races) saying they are not aware of any government policies or initiatives aimed at curbing inflation or reducing the cost of living. And 56% of Malays surveyed (54% all races) say that they are extremely concerned about the impact of inflation on their personal finances.
The second condition for a Opposition victory entails voter turnout: EMGC says Perikatan can win if the Malay voter turnout on polling day is 20% higher or more than the non-Malay turnout.
It points out that such a situation occurred in the 2022 Johor state polls when Malay voters’ turnout was estimated to have been 25% more than non-Malays’.
“If the non-Malay voter turnout stands at 65%, the Malay voter turnout has to be at 85% [for Perikatan to win,” EMGC notes.
At the time the survey was held, 85% of voters of all races said they would come out to vote, and 85% of the Malay respondents also said they would vote on Aug 12.
The ‘green’ factor
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s political expert Dr Ainul Adzellie Hasnul attributes a possible Perikatan win to the “green wave” campaign, among others.
At the same time, he says, “voters feel that the Federal Government has failed to deliver a better economic solution. The prices of goods are still increasing and the ringgit is still weak compared with the US dollar.”
He says another possible factor in a Perikatan win in Selangor is “the lack of confidence in the cooperation between Pakatan and Barisan” as the federal government.
Echoing Ainul’s views, EMGC says during GE15 Perikatan employed successful campaign strategies, especially through social media, to capture both the Malay bloc from Barisan’s vote bank and new voters.
This survey revealed that 14% of the Malay respondents in the 34 constituencies will vote along religious lines, which is another plus for Perikatan.
Nevertheless, EMGC says it remains to be seen if Perikatan will continue to raise sensitive race and religion issues in its efforts to bag more Malay votes – while such a strategy could be effective in fulfilling the first condition required to win Selangor, it could also work against Perikatan by turning more non-Malay voters against them.
As for Pakatan, EMGC says unless Perikatan fulfils the two conditions – and specifically in reference to the 34 marginal seats – the Pakatan-Barisan pact could win Selangor, albeit with only a simple majority.
From the survey, the concentration of Malays in the marginal constituencies leaning towards voting for Perikatan is considerably high at 31%. However, 52% of the respondents from the same community said they will vote for Pakatan.
Only 10% of Malays there said they will vote for Barisan, indicating a possible dismal performance by candidates from the coalition and pulling down overall results for Pakatan-Barisan.
EMGC also found that for straight fights in Selangor, 39% of the Malay samples said they will vote for Perikatan while 61% will choose Pakatan.
Show of unity vital
Universiti Malaya’s political analyst Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi says Pakatan and Barisan need to showcase their political unity at the federal level to voters on the ground.
“For example, we have yet to see DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke and Umno secretary-general Datuk Dr Asyraf Wajdi Dusuki campaigning together for the state polls, or youth chiefs from the respective parties going hand-in-hand to meet the voters.”
This type of strategy to exhibit unity “is yet to be clear”, he says.
Ainul says among the factors that could lead to a decline in support for Pakatan in Selangor is the desire to see how a new government will perform in administrating the state.
“Another factor is if voters are not convinced the government is putting in enough effort to resolve bread and butter issues.”
Assoc Prof Awang says it is also possible voter sentiments for or against the setting up of the federal unity government could affect the outcome of the state polls.
“This is because, for example, the people in Selangor, Penang and Negri Sembilan are more familiar with federal policies outlined by the Pakatan-led government.
“In comparison, the people in Kedah, Kelantan, and Terengganu are not so in tune with the policies set by the unity government, and have a distrust towards Barisan.”
This survey is part of the Media in Arms’ special report on the state elections. Media in Arms is a media collaboration comprising Chinese newspaper Sin Chew Daily, Malay daily Sinar Harian, local news broadcaster Astro Awani, Tamil newspaper Malaysia Nanban and The Star. The five mainstream media organisations got together in February 2022 to share resources and collaborate on diversified news content.
