A Long March 5 rocket carrying China's Chang'e-5 lunar probe launches from the Wenchang Space Center on China's southern Hainan Island on Nov. 24, 2020, on a mission to bring back lunar rocks, the first attempt by any nation to retrieve samples from the moon in four decades. (STR/AFP/Getty Images/TNS)
THE United States and China are racing to return humans to the moon and construct bases at the lunar south pole, all in preparation for an historic mission to Mars. Here is a timeline estimate.
2024: Send a crew to orbit the moon
Nasa: Artemis II was scheduled to launch in 2024. But Nasa has pushed the launch of Artemis II to Sept 2025 due to technical issues and Artemis III to Sept 2026.
Collect samples on the far side of the moon
China: Chang’e 6 is scheduled to land in 2024.
2025: Develop a space station to orbit the moon
Nasa: Initial components of the Lunar Gateway are scheduled to launch and enter orbit in 2025.
2026 - 2028: Begin robotic construction of a research station at the south pole of the moon
China: Chang’e 7 is scheduled to launch in 2026 to scout for water at the south pole. The Chang’e 8 mission, scheduled for 2028, would begin the establishment of a base.
2027: Develop a nuclear propulsion rocket, cutting travel time to Mars
Nasa: The first nuclear thermal propulsion rocket, developed by NASA, DARPA and Lockheed Martin, is scheduled for a test launch in 2027.
2025 - 2029: Return humans to the moon
Nasa: Artemis III is scheduled to launch in 2026, but could face delays as far out as 2027.
China: The Long March 10 rocket is “expected to be ready for its first flight in 2027.” The Chinese military goal is to land no later than 2029.
2028 - 2030: Establish a base at the south pole of the moon
Nasa: Nasa aims to develop a “regular cadence” of landings at the surface with Artemis IV landing in 2028, gradually establishing an outpost.
China: China plans to build on its Chang’e 7 and 8 missions, completing construction of the International Lunar Research Station by 2030.
2031: Operate space station orbiting Earth
The International Space Station (ISS) will be decommissioned, plunge to Earth in 2031.
China: Tiangong space station, completed in 2022, will be the only remaining crewed space station circling Earth.
2031: Return samples from Mars
Nasa: Nasa and the European Space Agency plan to return samples to Earth by 2031.
China: China’s initial mission was planned for 2031, but its goal has since been delayed to the “early 2030s” after the failure of its Mars rover.
2033 - 2039: Send a crew to orbit Mars
Nasa: Internally, Nasa is still debating whether to send an orbital mission at all, or go instead for a landing on the first mission. There is also debate between the 2033 and 2039 mission windows.
China: Chinese industry officials have suggested 2033 and 2035 missions to Mars, but US intelligence officials are skeptical they will be prepared in time.
2040: Land humans on Mars
Nasa: Nasa’s stated goal is to land humans on Mars by 2040.
China: Undetermined.
2049: Send a spacecraft to the rim of the solar system
China: Chinese officials have stated this is a goal to mark the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China in 2049.
Source: TNS
